Silver breaks through the $54 mark! How does this round of precious metal行情 compare to historical oil prices?

**Market Overview: Silver Hits Record Highs, Outperforming Expectations**

Since the start of 2025, silver has performed remarkably. COMEX silver futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached $54.65 per ounce on November 28, rewriting historical records. The spot market is also hot, with silver spot prices approaching $54.22 per ounce. Year-to-date, silver has gained 87%, far surpassing gold's 57% increase during the same period, making it a star among precious metals.

Compared to historical oil price trends, this cycle of precious metal appreciation exhibits different characteristics—oil price volatility is driven by geopolitical factors, while silver is primarily influenced by structural supply and demand imbalances, with entirely different logic.

**Supply Shortages as Main Driver, Futures Market Signals Short Squeeze**

Behind the strong silver prices are two core forces. First is a severe imbalance on the supply side. Global silver has been in a state of persistent supply shortage for several years. Expectations of tariffs on silver in the US have sparked a rush to transfer silver to the NYMEX, leading to a sharp depletion of inventories at other exchanges worldwide.

This inventory change has triggered arbitrage trading, further amplifying the risk of a short squeeze. The COMEX silver December 2025 contract has entered the delivery notice period, with volatility continuing to rise.

**Fed Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Driving Overall Precious Metal Strength**

Demand-side drivers are also strong. Recently, Federal Reserve officials have signaled dovish policy, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising to 85%. Loose monetary policy environments have traditionally benefited precious metals, with gold prices approaching $4,200, and silver, platinum, and other metals rising accordingly.

**Structural Gaps in 2026 May Persist, Investment Demand Heating Up**

Looking ahead to next year, many institutions remain optimistic. Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the Silver Institute, stated that structural gaps are likely to continue widening in 2026. Deutsche Bank forecasts that silver will continue to run a deficit next year, with an average price expectation of $55 per ounce, and silver ETF holdings may surpass the highs of 2021.

Goldman Sachs believes that under the dual influence of the Fed's easing cycle and diversified asset allocation needs, private investors will continue to view silver, platinum, and palladium as alternatives to gold. In the short term, the upward trend of these metals still has support.

The supply gap remains, and expectations of monetary easing persist. Silver may continue its rally into 2026—this is the result of the resonance between structural opportunities and policy factors.