January 13th at 21:30, the US December CPI data will be released, with an expectation of 0.3%. What are the potential impacts on risk markets?

① Stock Market: If the core CPI month-over-month exceeds expectations, it may lead to a decline in the stock market. For example, if the core monthly rate exceeds 0.45%, the S&P 500 index is expected to drop sharply by 1.25% to 2.5%. Conversely, if the core CPI month-over-month is below expectations, the stock market may rise, such as a core monthly rate below 0.30%, with the S&P 500 index expected to increase by 1.25% to 1.75%.
② Forex Market: The USD/JPY typically reacts most directly to US data. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it will increase the likelihood of the USD/JPY breaking higher, opening up bullish space. However, if the exchange rate approaches 159, the Japanese Ministry of Finance may intervene directly in the market. Conversely, if inflation data unexpectedly cools, traders may preemptively bet on the Fed cutting interest rates, causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to retrace.
③ Cryptocurrency Market: If the data is extremely high, indicating stubborn inflation, expectations of Fed rate cuts will be delayed, and Bitcoin may quickly fall below $90,000, testing stronger support, with the market broadly declining; if the data meets expectations or deviates slightly, a "bad news is already priced in" scenario may occur, and if Bitcoin remains above $90,000 after sharp volatility, a rebound could be expected; if the data cools and inflation rapidly slows, expectations of early rate cuts will heat up, and Bitcoin may break through key resistance levels, initiating a strong rebound.