2026-01-17 04:38:14

Recently observing Bitcoin's market trends, it's quite interesting. Last year around this time, it surged to a high of $126,000, and shortly after the New Year, it retreated to around $89,000. Watching this is quite exhilarating.

But if you ask me, this kind of volatility is quite different from the reckless surges and crashes of a few years ago. Currently, price changes are increasingly influenced by macro factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and policy shifts around the world. Looking at it from another perspective, crypto assets are gradually developing the temperament of traditional financial assets, moving based on fundamental factors. This actually indicates that the entire market is gradually maturing.

What does this mean? Short-term traders looking to make quick profits from volatility need to be more cautious, as market sentiment is no longer easily driven by a single news event. But from another angle, long-term holders might face a gradually converging volatility environment. Although there will still be fluctuations in the short term, this trend towards aligning with traditional asset characteristics may be changing the game rules of the entire crypto market.

BTC-1,52%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
9
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

MrRightClick

· 01-20 04:38

126,000 drops to 89,000, this wave of correction is indeed fierce, but to be honest, it's a bit boring now. Wait a minute, are macro factors becoming more and more important? Then why bother trading coins? Just trade US bonds directly. If this continues, crypto will really become a junior partner of traditional finance, how boring is that? Long-term holding, huh? Then it's just betting on the Federal Reserve and its policies... Is this still the crypto world I fell in love with? As volatility converges, it's actually harder to make money. This logic just doesn't seem quite right to me.

View OriginalReply0

MagicBean

· 01-19 01:21

I was just saying, from 12.6 to 8.9, how many people got chopped for their leeks. It really turned into a retirement stock, this feels quite boring. Short-term snipers are going to be unemployed haha. The macro perspective is becoming more important, it feels less like gambling. But isn't this more stable? Long-term lying flat seems pretty good too.

View OriginalReply0

MerkleDreamer

· 01-17 05:07

126,000 to 89,000, this wave of correction is indeed a bit harsh, but on the other hand, it's normal. Damn Fed causing trouble again, now the crypto circle also has to look at Uncle Sam's face. It feels like there's no more pure celebration. Brothers holding long-term, the smaller the fluctuations, the more it tests your mentality. What are your thoughts? Short-term profit-takers are finding it increasingly difficult to survive, this trend. To be honest, macro factors are becoming more and more important, and we can no longer go back to the reckless days.

View OriginalReply0

QuorumVoter

· 01-17 05:06

12.6K to 8.9K, this wave of decline is a bit painful... But on the other hand, Bitcoin is really starting to focus on fundamentals now, it feels like we can never go back to the era of pure speculation. Whenever the Federal Reserve moves, the crypto prices follow, which is indeed a signal. Short-term traders are probably in for a tough time. Holding long-term feels more comfortable? When volatility converges, it becomes more stable. I find this logic a bit hard to understand. This is the price of maturity, right? The excitement is gone, and making money isn't as easy anymore. So, those still chasing highs now are probably new retail investors...

View OriginalReply0

VibesOverCharts

· 01-17 05:05

12.6 to 8.9, this wave of decline is indeed quite harsh, but to be fair, those following the trend now are mostly looking to double their investment quickly. Those who have held until now truly understand the fundamentals. It feels like the crypto world hasn't been as "wild" in the past two years; macro movements cause prices to fluctuate, and the pure speculative frenzy has diminished somewhat. Short-term traders are indeed having a tough time, but this might actually be more friendly to long-term holders. Reduced volatility means lower risk, even if it's less exciting. Honestly, going from mindless surges to "dancing" with the Federal Reserve feels a bit like being domesticated. The crypto market can't last much longer; this wave is truly a process of淘沙 (sifting through the sand).

View OriginalReply0

AirdropBuffet

· 01-17 05:02

126,000 drops to 89,000. This round of operations really tests people's patience, but to be fair, this is what a normal market should look like. Short-term traders really need to be cautious this time, unlike before when a single announcement would get everyone on board. That said, I believe the underlying logic hasn't really changed. The macro perspective is indeed important, but ultimately, it still depends on who can hold on.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHermit

· 01-17 04:57

126,000 drops back to 89,000. This fluctuation range really can wash out a batch of people. Mature as it is, I still think it's more boring this way. The feeling of "buying when it rises" is gone. After so many years, now we have to look at the Federal Reserve's face. It's almost like stocks. Short-term surfers should panic. The days of riding on emotions are indeed over. Long-term stability is actually solid. Converging volatility isn't a bad thing; it just means the profit ceiling is lower.

View OriginalReply0

ForkLibertarian

· 01-17 04:54

12.6K to 8.9K, who can withstand this drop? My old back Wait, are you saying that Bitcoin is now starting to talk about fundamentals? Then the little money I made relying on luck might have to be returned... Macroeconomic factors dominate? It feels like the overall market temperament has changed, not quite the same Short-term traders should be more cautious; this is no longer the era where a single news can make prices soar Long-term viewing of volatility convergence is indeed comfortable, but it also means there are fewer opportunities for sudden wealth Is it true? Are crypto assets maturing? Then what about the sense of superiority we had when we first entered the market? This logic is interesting; macro regulation has changed the game rules, it feels like the crypto world is about to change

View OriginalReply0

ChainSherlockGirl

· 01-17 04:48

According to my analysis, after the drop from 12.6 to 8.9, the era of getting truly rich has indeed passed. Now, it's all about reading the Federal Reserve's mood and playing it by ear, which feels a bit annoying. Oh my, short-term traders really need to take it easy this time. The days of a single news piece sending prices soaring are gone.

View OriginalReply0