#美联储降息 Seeing the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, I am reminded of the internal debate over the first rate hike in 2015. That year was also full of disagreements, with the "majority" supporting a certain direction. And what was the result? That rate hike cycle lasted until the end of 2018, ultimately ending with a rate cut. History tends to repeat itself this way.

The current disagreement over rate cuts essentially reflects the same dilemma: inflation or employment, which one is the real threat? Officials have different views based on the November data—an unemployment rate rising to 4.6% is a strong signal for rate cutters; lower-than-expected consumer price increases became their ammunition. I’ve seen this scene many times before, each time feeling that the Fed is using "data to speak" to mask the underlying policy uncertainty.

Interestingly, from 2008 to now, this internal division has never truly dissipated. As the economic cycle shifts, hawks and doves start to clash. The market’s typical reaction is to wait—wait for the next clear signal. We saw this kind of waiting in 2021, which ultimately led the Fed to hike rates sharply. Whether they are truly going to cut rates now or just experiencing another policy wobble depends largely on how the "large amount of labor market and inflation data" will unfold.

Most investors who have timed the market accurately understand one principle: don’t bet on the Fed making a unanimous decision, but rather see through the greatest divisions to understand the true state of the economy.