#Strategy加仓BTC A 21% rebound and everyone is already shouting that the bull is back? I have to pour some cold water: this might just be that illusory "dead cat bounce" in a bear market.

Why so pessimistic? On-chain data actually explains the situation quite well. The real demand in the market has been consistently weak, and this rebound looks more like a car with only half a tank of fuel, pressing hard on the pedal and seeming to run pretty fast, but it can't last too long.

Look at the recent trend—breaking through the 365-day moving average and then rebounding, only to get stuck below this "bull-bear dividing line." This scene is quite familiar, as it played out during the 2022 bear market. The lesson from history is clear: if you can't get over this hurdle, it usually means another downward wave is coming.

The voices from institutions are also quite insightful. The heads of some analysis firms have already stated that this adjustment cycle could last more than half a year. Just a little rise and people get excited—be careful not to get caught halfway up the mountain.

So what should you do now? My advice is four words—watch more, act less. The true support for a bull market depends on continuous inflows of institutional funds, along with gradually clearer policy frameworks and fundamental support. Currently, these signals are still quite vague, and the market's foundation isn't stable enough.

Rather than chasing highs and selling lows, it's better to save your ammunition. Wait for more convincing confirmation signals from the market—such as key resistance levels holding steady at higher prices with increased volume. Only then should you act, and you'll feel more at ease. Sometimes in the market, doing nothing is the smartest decision.