#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Rebound 21% and then start calling for a bull? I advise you to stay calm.

The on-chain data is right in front of you, and the data from a leading blockchain analysis platform is very clear — market demand has not truly picked up, and overall it remains weak. It’s like stepping on the gas pedal when the gas tank is half full; you accelerate quickly and feel good, but the endurance doesn’t change.

Look at the current candlestick chart again. This wave of market movement is a complete copy of the pattern from 2022. Both are rebounding below the 365-day moving average and stuck under this "life-and-death line" that they can’t break through. What does historical experience tell you? If you can’t push through, it’s often a prelude to a reversal downward.

Industry insiders have long said that this adjustment cycle could last six months or even longer. Now, when the market rises a little, everyone gets excited — be careful, and you might get caught in the middle when the trend reverses.

So what should you do? My advice is straightforward — hold your bullets, watch more, and act less. What does a real rally need? Institutional funds continuously entering the market, a stable and clear regulatory framework — these are the solid supports that can sustain the trend. Currently, these are all unresolved, and the market’s foundation is not solid.

Instead of chasing highs, it’s better to wait for a more certain signal. For example, if BTC firmly stays above $100,000 with a volume breakout, that would be a truly meaningful turning point. Until then, just relax and stay flat.

I have a good idea of what the next key turning signal is. If you want to get the first-hand data to judge whether the market is genuine or fake, you can continue to follow the subsequent analysis.