#市场周期与价格预测 When I saw this set of data, the first thought that flashed through my mind was: here we go again.

Ancient chips costing $378 each, which start to flee in batches every time ETH breaks above $4000, and a $1 billion profit-taking in a single day in June—this is not a coincidence, it's a signal. These long-term holders who have been in the game for over 5 years understand a simple truth: the crypto cycle is like a pendulum, it swings back down after reaching a certain high. They are not greedy; they take profits dozens of times over and then exit because they have seen too many stories of peaks collapsing into hell.

Think about how clear this logic is: whenever large amounts of chips take profits, the price inevitably hits a temporary top. It’s not them dumping the market, but a message to newcomers—the ceiling has been reached. But what about reality? Every time, a large number of retail investors start FOMOing, thinking they’ve finally caught up, not realizing this is the last position to buy in.

There are still 21 million ETH held by whales, which means they can continue to cash out at any time. And we must remember: the movements of these large chips are always more truthful than technical or emotional factors. No lies—data speaks for itself.

Learning to read these signals is more effective than listening to any big influencer’s calls.