#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 The situation for the Fed Chair candidate has suddenly changed, causing a shock in the markets.

On January 16th, US time, Trump unexpectedly stated at a White House event that he wants Chief Economic Advisor Kevin Hasset to stay on, implying that the plan for the Fed Chair might be altered. His logic is very pragmatic: once in the Fed, constrained by the system, there are fewer words, and the White House loses an economic policy think tank that can speak.

As soon as these words were out, global markets instantly adjusted: the US dollar index shifted from a decline to an increase, the three major US stock indices collectively turned downward, spot gold and silver plummeted, with silver even dropping over 6%. In the crypto assets sector, $BTC, $ETH also fluctuated accordingly.

At the same time, the unexpected rise of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh drew attention. On the Kalshi prediction platform, Warsh became a favorite, with his probability of succeeding soaring to 59% overnight, while Hasset’s popularity was cut in half to 14%.

Time is tight: current Chair Powell’s term only lasts until May 15th this year, and Treasury Secretary Bessent has already revealed that the candidate list has been narrowed down to four people. The final choice is expected to be announced around the Davos Forum.

What’s more complicated is the internal rift within the Federal Reserve — some officials advocate for continued rate cuts to support employment, while others insist on pausing rate cuts to lock in inflation expectations. The new Chair will not only have to balance high inflation and employment but also make decisions amid a noisy committee, which is under immense pressure.

The leadership transition at the Federal Reserve is becoming a key variable influencing global asset allocation.