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Japan's move is indeed ruthless. After holding it in for so many years, the 10-year government bond yield suddenly surged to 2.18%, directly breaking the record since 1997.
What's the background? At the end of last year, the Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, officially ending decades of ultra-low interest rates. The current dilemma is: inflation can't be brought down, the yen is still depreciating, and the market generally expects the central bank to continue raising interest rates.
Here's a key point—previously, Japanese institutions were big buyers of US bonds, but now the situation has reversed. Domestic government bonds can reliably yield over 2% risk-free, and after deducting costs, they are safer and more cost-effective compared to US bonds. Why not buy back?
If they really start significantly reducing their holdings of US bonds, the consequences could be substantial: US Treasury yields would rise, high-valuation US stocks would come under pressure, and global markets would be forced into a kind of "passive rate hike." In other words, Japan's policy adjustment could impact investment layouts worldwide—no one can escape this shockwave.