A mysterious person suddenly appeared in the #数字资产市场动态 trading group.

Every day, they only said two words: up or down.

On the first day, the members split into two groups—those who made money stayed, and those who lost money left immediately. The group instantly felt much clearer.

The next day, they were right again. Continued to be right on the third day. Someone started discussing in a small window, "This guy is not ordinary."

A week passed, and only loyal fans remained in the group. These people noticed a common point: they hadn’t lost money for several consecutive days.

After two weeks, a small core group was basically formed. The teacher had hit the mark sixteen times in a row. Someone couldn’t help but ask, "How did you do it?"

He didn’t answer directly, only threw out a link to open an account.

At that moment, everyone still here had a unified thought—this isn’t luck, it’s skill.

Then the market turned.

The first mistake in judgment. Someone said, "Normal, everyone makes mistakes sometimes."

The second mistake. The teacher said, "This is an adjustment period, I’m laying out my plan."

The third mistake. The group started to fall silent. Someone tentatively said, "Maybe we should take a break?"

The fourth time, the teacher didn’t speak again.

And so, the group disbanded.

A few months later, someone involved saw a familiar opening line in another group:

"Sixteen consecutive hits, witnessing history."

Profile picture changed, nickname changed too.
But the pattern remained the same.

He finally understood—those sixteen times weren’t to prove ability at all, but to filter out who would continue following.

This phenomenon is called survivor bias, and it’s everywhere in the trading market. The same pattern appears in signals from KOLs, fund promotions, AI backtesting stories, and even startup funding narratives.

Short-term success records are often just survivor samples in a probability game. The real risk is that we easily mistake "staying alive" for "having ability."