#美联储货币政策 The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes have just been released, revealing internal disagreements that are more pronounced than expected. There are three key signals:

First, the willingness to cut interest rates shows clear cracks. Among the 19 policymakers, 6 believe that maintaining a 3.9% rate until the end of 2025 is appropriate, indicating that at least one-third of the officials are cautious about further rate cuts. In contrast, Milan has repeatedly advocated for an aggressive 50 basis point cut, with the divergence far exceeding market expectations.

Second, the balance between employment and inflation is swinging. The November unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, but consumer price increases were below expectations. This provides arguments for both sides and explains why Powell said "people hold strong differing views"—essentially a fundamental disagreement over risk prioritization.

Third, the uncertainty about the rate cut path in 2026 has directly increased market volatility. CME data shows only a 20% probability of a rate cut in January, implying that expectations for liquidity conditions are widening. If employment continues to weaken, rate cuts will occur; if inflation rebounds, it will be suppressed. Powell's expected departure in May and the dovish bias of the new chair are reshaping market pricing of risk assets.

From an on-chain perspective, large funds are waiting for this uncertainty to resolve. It is recommended to closely monitor stablecoin inflows and outflows, as well as whale wallet position changes, which will reflect the market's true attitude earlier than macro expectations.