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The standoff between the White House and the Federal Reserve has intensified. Trump has pressured Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and the Department of Justice has even issued grand jury subpoenas, which is rare in U.S. political history. Powell subsequently released a video statement with a firm stance: "Criminal threats will not change the central bank's independent judgment."
The situation is developing in an unexpected direction. Some analysts believe that Powell may continue to serve as a board member after May, effectively becoming a "shadow chairman" and maintaining significant influence within the FOMC. What does this mean for Fed decision-making?
Trump wants to quickly appoint his own candidates to fill vacancies on the board, but these nominations are stuck in a deadlock in the Senate. If Powell indeed remains as a board member, the decision-making coalition within the FOMC could fracture—supporters of rate cuts versus factions advocating for high interest rates may engage in more intense battles.
Another variable is that the Supreme Court is currently reviewing a case concerning the independence of the Federal Reserve. Once the ruling is announced, it could shake the foundational system of the Fed that has been in place for decades.
How will this power struggle ultimately unfold? More importantly, how will it influence future interest rate trends, U.S. dollar policy, and even the trading logic of Bitcoin and the crypto markets? The market is awaiting answers.