Many people believe that BTC has already peaked, but a closer look at the data reveals that things might not be that simple.

Since the bottom of the bear market, BTC has risen approximately 8 times, indicating that the cycle has indeed entered the later stage. But this does not mean the high point will be in October 2025. That peak is more likely just a phase top.

**Why do we make this judgment? Just look at a few indicators:**

The popularity ranking of the application used by a leading exchange speaks volumes. During the cycle tops in 2017 and 2021, this ranking was #1. What about this October’s new high? The ranking was only 283. This suggests retail investors haven't truly gone crazy yet, far from a nationwide frenzy.

Next, look at the Fear & Greed Index. Historically, bull market tops tend to hover between 80-95. This cycle, it only briefly touched 80 in October, with no signs of sustained extreme greed.

The weekly RSI is also interesting. Before the last two cycle tops, RSI surged above 90. Currently, it’s still some distance from that overbought extreme, and momentum has not been exhausted.

What about social media sentiment? Twitter has been relatively calm this round, and discussions on YouTube are much less heated than during the 2017/2021 cycles. The popularity is simply different.

The performance of altcoins best illustrates the point. During historical cycle tops, altcoins generally surged strongly. But in October 2025, most altcoins have retraced 70-80% from their highs. This is completely inconsistent with the full-blown euphoria typical of cycle tops.

**So, what does this mean?**

The current position is closer to the early stages of Q1 2021. In other words, if history repeats, BTC is likely to reach the true high of this cycle in Q1 2026. Starting from February, there may be opportunities for a rally in altcoins overall, ETH/BTC, and Alt/BTC.

The data is right here; whether you believe it or not is up to you.