The policy tilt of the new Federal Reserve Chair candidate suddenly changed, triggering a chain reaction in the market.

The recent developments show that among the list of Fed Chair candidates, the originally favored dovish candidate Haskett has been excluded from consideration, replaced by the more cautious Waugh. This change seems to be just a personnel adjustment at the top, but it actually reflects a subtle shift in the tone of U.S. policy.

CME interest rate futures data immediately provided the most direct response: the probability of zero rate cuts in 2026 soared to 11.8%, while the probability of a cumulative cut of more than 25 basis points dropped below 70%. In other words, the market’s expectation of a dovish Fed policy next year was cut off overnight.

This is undoubtedly bad news for crypto assets. The core driver of cryptocurrencies ultimately depends on the global liquidity environment—when liquidity is loose, risk assets are favored; when liquidity tightens, speculative demand is the first to be suppressed. The significant downward revision of liquidity easing expectations is like pouring cold water on the market.

So what should ordinary participants do? Here are a few points to consider:

First, reduce leverage positions appropriately. Market volatility is sure to increase, and high leverage at this stage is essentially gambling.

Second, align capital allocation with mainstream assets. When uncertainty increases, leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum will become relatively safe havens, while small coins and concept tokens face sharply increased risks.

Third, keep an eye on macroeconomic data. The specific stance of the new Fed Chair and the economic data in the coming months are important references. There’s no rush; waiting for clearer signals before making decisions is perfectly fine.

Overall, this is a critical turning point from a liquidity-driven to a fundamentals-driven phase. Those who can adapt to this change early will have an advantage in the next wave of market movements.