Last night, the global markets experienced a sharp fluctuation. A personnel move by Trump—publicly urging to retain the Chief Economic Advisor—was quickly interpreted by the market as a significant signal regarding the next Federal Reserve Chairperson. Following the news, US stocks plummeted over 100 points, and gold and silver also experienced flash crashes. This is not just a simple personnel change but a major event that influences global capital flows.

Why is this signal enough to trigger market reactions? The key lies in personnel being policy. The stance of the Federal Reserve Chair directly governs the global monetary tide. If it tilts toward a more hawkish and aggressive approach—such as accelerating rate hikes or提前缩表—market reactions will be very intense. A hawkish Fed implies long-term high interest rates, prompting hot money to flow back into dollar assets, which puts pressure on stock valuations and gold’s safe-haven attributes.

The linked plunge of US stocks and gold reflects the market’s fear. Capital votes with its feet, indicating apprehension toward hawkish policies. The underlying logic is clear: Hawkish Fed → sustained high interest rates → increased attractiveness of the dollar → risk assets face cold reception, and the safe-haven halo diminishes.

From multiple cycles, this is currently a sensitive node. The Fed’s rate hike cycle seems to be nearing its end, but if policy shifts toward hawkishness, the tightening script could restart. US inflation remains resilient, and employment data stays hot, providing fertile ground for hawkish policies. It is foreseeable that the curtain is slowly rising on a major global capital migration. For traders, paying attention to Fed decisions and the dollar trend will directly influence investment logic in gold, cryptocurrencies, and other non-US assets.