Here are some thoughts for friends holding ETH — the outlook for this asset truly deserves more confidence.

Without participation from players like some professional vault-type institutions, this ETH cycle is likely to be stuck oscillating between $2000 and $4000, waiting for fundamentals to break the deadlock. The problem is, reality isn't that pessimistic.

These institutions have already bought about 5 million ETH, all locked in staking and unable to move. This isn't just a numbers game — it directly rewrites the supply-side logic of ETH, compressing the market’s downside potential.

What's more interesting is that a leading vault institution's goal is to acquire 5% of the total ETH supply, and they've already achieved 70% of that target. Once the goal is truly reached, the circulating supply will be further squeezed, strengthening support levels, and naturally narrowing the space for downward movement.

Looking at the ETH balance ratio on exchanges, it’s actually less than BTC’s. What does this indicate? Even if the market turns sour, it will be difficult for ETH to break below $2000.

My judgment is that ETH is following the institutionalized path that BTC has traveled from January 2023 to November 2024 — as long as the US stock market doesn’t experience a massive crash, ETH reaching new highs is almost inevitable.

Those still shouting about breaking below $1000 or even tens of dollars, honestly, most haven't thought it through. I'm not a die-hard fan, but I do see the future of ETH very clearly.