BTC repeatedly swings around the 95,000 level, unable to rise further or drop sharply. After checking the news, I finally understand—the US spot Bitcoin ETF made a big move yesterday, with net outflows approaching $400 million! Major players like Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise are pulling out, only BlackRock is still holding on, and this scene warrants careful analysis.

**What does the capital flow indicate?**

This wave of ETF net outflows clearly signals a problem. Short-term confidence among large institutions is noticeably weakening, and such heavy selling pressure suggests market sentiment is shifting. Everyone initially expected the Fed's easing to stimulate a rally, but now policy expectations have changed—Trump might replace "dovish" Harker, which severely limits the room for rate cuts in 2026. The sudden tightening of liquidity expectations directly punctures the bullish bubble.

**What about technical analysis?**

From the Bollinger Bands perspective, the price has broken below the lower band, which usually indicates a potential rebound opportunity in the short term, provided that no new lows are made. The current dilemma is that the news is bearish and institutions are reducing their positions. In this context, any rebound could become an opportunity to escape the top.

The key question now is not whether it can rise, but where this correction will end. The critical support level is around 92,000; if broken, the next target could be 88,000. Conversely, if it stabilizes above that, around 98,000 will be an important resistance. Without a clear directional signal, the safest approach is to set stop-losses and avoid greed.