How BTC will perform in 2026 largely depends on the movement of ETFs.

To put it simply, with the current size of Bitcoin, retail investors can no longer play a significant role. The real main players have long shifted to institutions, and banks are also involved. Essentially, whoever controls the institutional chips holds the right to speak. Among the top players in institutions, there is no doubt that asset management giants like BlackRock are the leaders.

When BlackRock first made a move in November last year, the market should have been alert. At that time, the judgment was that a bear market was coming, and the subsequent continued shorting confirmed this idea. But the key question is—when will the bull market return? It all depends on when BlackRock thinks the price is low enough to start building a large position.

Currently, other institutions are selling off, but BlackRock is still increasing its holdings. If this trend continues, whether BTC can break through the 100,000 to 110,000 mark depends entirely on whether BlackRock will continue to add to its position.

However, there is a more complex variable—2026 is actually very difficult to determine the market direction. Because 2027 will usher in a new halving cycle, many market participants might be making room for 2027 in 2026. So, whether 2026 is a true bull or a false bear remains uncertain. Everything is shrouded in mystery.