#美国核心物价涨幅不及市场预估 Precious metals market review this week: The logic behind the correction after the 4643 surge

This week, gold retreated from high levels. Two major driving forces behind this movement are worth noting: strong US employment data led to a rapid appreciation of the US dollar, while Trump’s statements on Iran became more moderate, causing geopolitical premiums to fade and safe-haven demand to decline. Manufacturing data from New York and Philadelphia also showed improvement. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to remain on hold in the first half of the year and not initiate a rate cut cycle. Despite Trump’s frequent calls for rate cuts, market consensus leans toward maintaining policy at the January meeting, with only two rate cuts possibly this year, each by 25 basis points. Under the dual pressures of improving economic data and the failure of rate cut expectations, the dollar remains strong, and gold faces inevitable pressure.

The weekly review shows that the market trend largely aligns with technical expectations: after breaking new highs on Monday, it fluctuated around 4600, then rose to touch 4643, which coincided with the resistance level of the 4-hour ascending channel. During the subsequent correction, support at 4580 was not effectively held, with the price dropping to a low of 4536 before rebounding. The daily chart shows a lower shadow, and the weekly chart presents a long upper shadow with a bullish candlestick, indicating that while the bulls have not completely lost momentum, a correction signal has appeared.

From the perspective of multi-timeframe technical structure, the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and hourly charts have all completed a 5-wave upward pattern. However, whether this rally has truly ended still requires further confirmation. Next week’s key level to watch is 4500—this is both the retracement support of the entire upward wave from 4276 to 4643 and the previous third wave top on the hourly chart. Breaking below 4500 would indicate a short-term top has formed, leading to a larger correction; holding above it would mean the bulls still have room to extend.

Trading direction: Focus on the resistance at the Friday high of 4620 and the upper boundary of the 4-hour ascending channel. At the beginning of next week, consider short positions around 4620, with the first target at 4550. If support cannot be maintained, then aim for the 4500 defense line.