#MSCI未来或纳入数字资产财库企业 Weekly Precious Metals Market Review: 4643 Peaks and Retreats, Next Week’s 4500 Key Threshold

Why did gold plunge from high levels this week? The main two reasons are—strong US employment data boosting the dollar, which surged on the back of it; and Trump softening his stance on Iran, easing geopolitical risks, leading to a decline in market safe-haven demand. Additionally, manufacturing data from New York and Philadelphia unexpectedly improved, causing investors to anticipate the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in the first half of the year, further strengthening the dollar. Although Trump occasionally called for rate cuts, the market generally expects no action at the January FOMC meeting, with at most two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year. The combination of good data and the failure of rate cut expectations led to a bilateral strengthening of the dollar, naturally putting pressure on precious metals.

This week’s market movements followed a familiar pattern. After breaking new highs on Monday, prices oscillated around 4600, then surged directly to 4643, precisely touching the four-hour ascending channel resistance line, before turning downward. Although support at 4580 was tested multiple times, it was finally broken yesterday, with the lowest point reaching 4536 before rebounding. The daily chart shows a long lower shadow, and the weekly chart closed with a bullish candle featuring a long upper shadow. At first glance, the bulls seem resilient, but signs of correction are already emerging.

From a technical perspective, the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and hourly charts have all completed a 5-wave upward cycle, but whether this rally is truly over remains to be seen. Next week’s key level is 4500—this is the retracement support from the rise from 4276 to 4643, and it was also the top of the third wave on the hourly chart. If 4500 is broken, the short-term top will be confirmed, and precious metals may face a correction; if it holds, the bullish trend still has room to continue.

Next week’s strategy is straightforward: first focus on the Friday high of 4620, then on the strong resistance at the upper boundary of the 4-hour channel. Early next week, consider initiating short positions around 4620, with the first target at 4550. If this level is broken, then the 4500 critical line should be brought into view.