Recent data feedback shows that US liquidity is indeed on the path to recovery. Interestingly, the current policy environment has actually given the market more room for maneuver.

Tariff policies have repeatedly faced setbacks, and polling support rates have fluctuated—these seem to be negative factors, but in reality, they are forcing policymakers to continuously roll out stimulus measures. Every time positive news is released, it ultimately stems from the need for economic stimulation. And economic stimulation is always a catalyst for risk assets.

Against this backdrop, ETH is very likely to outperform BTC first. Historical experience shows that after each bull market, the flow of funds tends to follow a similar pattern—initially spilling out of BTC, flowing into ETH, and then spreading to the entire altcoin ecosystem.

But there is a prerequisite: ETH’s quality must keep pace. Pure price appreciation is far from enough; it depends on three things—whether trading volume can increase, whether on-chain activity can improve, and whether the capital structure can be optimized. Missing any one of these is unacceptable.

Currently, ETH’s trend still needs to be observed for a while longer. If these three dimensions can advance in harmony, the explosion of the altcoin season may not be too far off. Notably, the monetary policy expectations for the first half of 2026 and the mid-term election cycle in the second half are two time windows that could bring new opportunities.