Recently, there is a phenomenon in the market worth noting—two major institutions representing American and Asian funds, their buying rhythms have already become noticeably out of sync. This divergence, to some extent, has already determined whether BTC can continue to rise.

Looking back at the strong rally in the second quarter, it was essentially driven by capital from both sides working together. It’s important to know that Bitcoin’s market cap is now close to two trillion dollars, and the chips have long been scattered all over the place, with many old investors still holding losses. Under these circumstances, relying on one side’s funds alone cannot push the price to new highs; it requires multiple sources of capital to enter the market simultaneously.

But now the game has changed. The American funds are still fighting it out, believing that the so-called four-year cycle is outdated and continuing to add positions without hesitation; on the other hand, Asian investors are still operating according to the old cycle, taking profits at highs. The result is a tug-of-war: one side is pushing the market up while the other keeps selling pressure down. This seesaw state makes it very unlikely to hit new highs.

Let’s also analyze the real situation of U.S. capital itself. Their incremental inflows mainly rely on two channels—ETFs and large corporate investors. The net inflow of ETFs, in terms of scale and consistency, is clearly weaker than the wave earlier this year; large corporate investors have also mostly retreated, with only some leading listed tech companies still making regular investments, and new buying activity has become rare. Even more critically, the relevant indices have frozen the weight adjustments of this company, meaning that the more they buy, the harder it becomes to attract passive funds to take over, and the financing space is tightly constrained.

Putting these factors together: U.S. capital’s strength is below previous highs, Asian capital is systematically selling at highs, and the probability of BTC hitting new highs within the year is indeed low. Unless some sudden black swan event directly overturns the current volume structure, it will be very difficult to break this situation in the short term.