The Federal Reserve's $16 billion liquidity injection has been confirmed, and the signaling significance of this round of easing cycle needs to be taken seriously. Comparing the market performance before and after the 2020 March pandemic easing, the current difference in chip structure lies in: institutions have formed significant lock-in positions on BTC and ETH, liquidity supply has increased coupled with a rise in concentration of holdings, and once an upward trend is triggered, a short squeeze effect will inevitably occur.

From on-chain data, key indicators to observe should include: tracking the movements of large holders, changes in the pace of inflows and outflows on exchanges, and the margin call pressure on short positions. Currently, the short alliance indeed faces a risk of structural disintegration—early liquidation would incur time losses, while late liquidation would suffer losses from price punctures. This asymmetric risk structure often accelerates concentrated liquidations.

In the short term, focus should be on whether the Federal Reserve's subsequent easing pace proceeds as expected, and the stability of institutions' locked-in positions. These factors jointly determine the potential for further upside and the intensity of short squeeze.