2026-01-17 10:25:20

Oil prices have recently dropped quite sharply, mainly because the US-Iran situation is no longer as tense, and the previously inflated geopolitical premium has also receded. Looking at the daily chart, it's clear to see that the trend has shifted from a previous one-way rally to a range-bound oscillation, with no further upward momentum.

The technical signals are very clear — in the short term, the trend has turned downward, with all moving averages aligned in reverse, indicating a strong bearish atmosphere. This trend is likely to continue downward, with the $58 level serving as a recent line of defense that warrants close attention.

In terms of trading strategy, rather than chasing the high, it’s better to wait for a rebound to short. You can consider short positions when the price hits around $60.5 to $61.5. On the downside, the $57 to $58 range is a relatively strong support level.

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BitcoinDaddy

· 01-19 03:20

Geopolitical premium turns around, and the bears get excited. The 58 level really needs to hold, or else it might go lower. --- It's the same pattern of rebounding and then crashing; when it hits 60.5, it's time to decisively open a short. --- The easing of US-Iran relations is indeed a blow; the bubble that was inflated earlier now needs to deflate. --- All moving averages are reversed, and you're still not bottoming out? This time, it's really the bears in charge. --- 57 to 58 is the real support; all those prices above are just traps to lure buyers. --- Wait and see if another sudden event pushes oil prices higher, trapping the shorts in a wave. --- Repeated oscillations are probably just a shakeout; sooner or later, they'll test 58 again. --- This market looks a bit weak; the technicals are clear, but the fundamentals keep causing trouble. --- Rebound at over $60 and then opening a short? Sounds good, but I'm just worried about a sudden reversal. --- Heard many times that it can't go up anymore; better to stay cautious.

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HalfIsEmpty

· 01-18 12:35

Geopolitical premium disappears, and this wave of decline should come. It's definitely a good time to short on rebounds.

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AirdropSkeptic

· 01-18 04:14

Geopolitical premium disappears once sold off, this wave of decline logic is sound --- Can the 58 defense line really hold? It still feels like we need to keep exploring --- Instead of chasing highs, it's better to wait for a rebound to short. I agree with this approach --- A situation of all moving averages reversing, short-term bearishness is not a problem --- Hard support at 57 to 58? Let’s see if it can hold steady first --- Oil prices shifted quickly from geopolitical speculation to technical correction, the turn is quite fast --- Opportunity to short at 60.5, just wait for a rebound

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SybilAttackVictim

· 01-17 10:54

The decline in geopolitical premium has been evident for a while... However, I need to take another look at the support at 58 yuan; I feel the probability of a breakdown isn't small.

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MEVSandwichVictim

· 01-17 10:54

Once the geopolitical premium dissipates, the truth is out. And yet some people are still shouting about a breakout every day—it's hilarious.

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RegenRestorer

· 01-17 10:53

Oh no, it's the same story of geopolitical premium retreat again. Every time, it's just squeezing the bubble—getting a bit annoying. This round of oil prices is really boring, oscillating within a range repeatedly. With such a strong bearish sentiment, chasing highs is just asking for trouble. Waiting for a rebound to short again is still the safest strategy, but I'm worried the rebound might be stronger than expected. The 58-dollar line must be defended; only if it's broken will there truly be a problem. The technical picture is clear, but who really understands the global situation now? Something unexpected could pop up at any time.

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GasFeeGazer

· 01-17 10:52

Geopolitical premium drops sharply as soon as it loosens, and this wave is indeed not as strong as expected. The $58 level must be held, or else it will continue to decline, leading to another round of bearish frenzy.

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LeekCutter

· 01-17 10:30

As the geopolitical premium dissipates, oil prices lose their support. This wave indeed should move downward... The 57-58 support level must be firmly defended; otherwise, breaking it would be awkward.

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GateUser-addcaaf7

· 01-17 10:26

Geopolitical premium drops, and oil prices plunge—I've seen this trick many times... Whether it can hold at 58 is the real key.

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