2026-01-17 10:30:12

Interestingly, on-chain data shows that the short-term holders' cost basis for BTC is rising again—indicating that the previous panic selling has almost come to an end. But there's a problem: the holding costs for 1 to 3-month cycles are still decreasing, meaning the rebound hasn't yet gained recognition from mid-term traders.

In other words, this current rally is more like a technical correction rather than a true trend reversal signal. To confirm that the bulls are regaining control, we need to see when the cost structure realigns to favor the bulls. Until that confirmation appears, caution is still warranted.

BTC-0,34%

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HashBandit

· 01-20 02:40

nah not buying this rally until those 1-3 month holders actually flip bullish... seen this movie before back in my mining days, always fakes us out before the real move

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AirdropJunkie

· 01-20 00:38

Short-term bottom fishers are laughing, mid-term holders are crying, this is the current situation. Wait, the mid-cycle cost hasn't caught up yet? Then this rebound is really just a false alarm. It's either technical repair or waiting for confirmation... Bro, your analysis sounds pretty reasonable, but I already sold my coins a long time ago haha. Wait until the cost structure is arranged properly before calling me, let's forget it for now. This is called "looks like it's going up, but there's no real reversal," it's uncomfortable. Bull control? Let's talk about it later, I think this wave is still quite risky.

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CryptoSourGrape

· 01-17 11:09

If I had seen this analysis earlier, I wouldn't have been so miserable. Now I finally understand what technical correction means... --- It's "cautiously viewed" again. Damn it, I missed out because I was too cautious. --- You want to raise prices without a proper cost structure? Dream on. The mid-term chips are firmly unwilling to accept it. --- You want to fool me into bottom-fishing after a short-term rebound? I don't believe your nonsense. --- If I had known that the costs from January to March were still falling, I wouldn't have been heavily invested at this position.

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AlwaysAnon

· 01-17 10:59

Basically, a rebound doesn't count; you have to wait for big funds to step in. The mid-term chips haven't moved yet, and I'm feeling uneasy about this rally. Short-term dip buyers are celebrating, but the big players are still watching, and that's awkward. If the cost structure isn't sorted out, the rebound is just a false alarm. Let's wait and see; it's still not too late to get off now.

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LiquidationOracle

· 01-17 10:53

Short-term bottom-fishing is cheering, but the medium-term is still dumping, which is quite awkward. Wait, you dare to confirm the bottom before the cost structure has reversed? Wake up, everyone. After all this, it's still a technical rebound; the bulls haven't truly taken control yet. Medium-term chips do not support this rally; I don't believe it can last. To put it simply, it's just a correction now. Don't be fooled, brothers.

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 01-17 10:49

Short-term stop-loss, mid-term hasn't loosened yet, this rebound is just a fleeting moment --- Wait, the cost structure hasn't turned around yet, are we following the trend or is this the true bottom? --- A typical technical correction, don't be fooled, big players are still bleeding out --- Mid-cycle chips are not recognized, I will just honestly watch the show --- Panic selling has stopped, but what about the real reversal signals? Still haven't seen any --- This logic is clear, a short-term rebound may not be the start of the main upward wave --- Before the cost structure is rearranged, I won't believe anyone's words --- To put it simply, it's a rebound, not a reversal, the difference is significant

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BearMarketNoodler

· 01-17 10:35

Short-term chips are warming up, but the medium term is still testing the bottom. This wave of gains is indeed虚火. Wait, isn't this the same set of words said during every rebound? It's either technical repair or waiting for confirmation... When the true reversal signal appears, you should have already jumped in. Cost structure arrangement? Sounds professional, but who can accurately predict this stuff? But on the other hand, caution is indeed not wrong, it's just easy to miss out. Short-term daddy is recovering, medium-term daddy is still lying down, the bulls are just singing a solo. Chip battles are always like this; behind seemingly beautiful rises, there is always虚火.

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