#WeekendMarketAnalysis

Despite Bitcoin recording a 21% rebound since November 2025, climbing from $80,500 to around $97,900, this move still appears to be a bear market rally rather than the start of a sustainable recovery. The broader market structure does not yet support the idea of a confirmed long-term trend reversal.
A similar pattern played out during the 2022 bear market. After Bitcoin crossed above the 365-day moving average from below, the price first declined by approximately 27%, then surged nearly 47%, only to be rejected precisely at the 365-day moving average. The current price behavior closely mirrors that historical setup, raising caution about the durability of the recent rally.
Both fundamental and technical indicators continue to signal that the broader bear market may still be in place. A particularly concerning development is the increase in Bitcoin inflows to centralized exchanges. Over the past seven days, exchange inflows have reached approximately 39,000 BTC, the highest level observed since November 25, 2025.
Historically, rising inflows to exchanges are associated with growing selling pressure, as market participants especially retail investors transfer assets for potential liquidation. This behavior often creates short-term downside pressure on price, even during rebound phases.
As a result, bullish momentum appears to be weakening. In the near term, Bitcoin’s direction will largely depend on two critical factors: continued capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a clear recovery in spot market demand. Without strength from these sources, the current rally risks losing momentum and transitioning into another corrective phase.