The cryptocurrency market at the beginning of the year has been like a roller coaster. Bitcoin once surged toward the $100,000 mark, with everyone betting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, and market sentiment was extremely bullish. But a message on January 17th completely shattered this optimism—Trump stated that he was not very supportive of White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair, which instantly reversed market expectations.

Data from the prediction platform Polymarket best illustrates the issue. The probability of Hassett's election plummeted, while support for another former Fed official, Kevin Warsh, soared to nearly 60%. This reversal may seem like a personnel change, but it actually affects the nerves of the entire crypto market.

Why is it so sensitive? The core disagreement lies here: Hassett is a dovish figure, and his appointment would likely lead to interest rate cuts by 2026, which is positive for crypto assets. In contrast, Warsh is a typical hawk who advocates maintaining high interest rates, which is clearly detrimental to high-risk assets.

Nansen analysts openly stated that Hassett has a significantly higher level of support from the crypto market, while Warsh's hawkish stance on tightening policy is the biggest risk. This is not conspiracy theory; it’s cold, hard facts about policy.

From the market reaction, Bitcoin prices have started to decline, and volatility is rising. The crypto space is now entering a typical policy-sensitive period, with every investor closely watching who will ultimately become the Federal Reserve Chair. This is not just a personnel appointment; it’s a decisive factor for the overall tone of the crypto market in 2026.