I've recently heard an old and well-known guaranteed win theory for contracts: start with a capital of one million, place an initial bet of ten thousand, if you lose, double to twenty thousand, continue doubling until you win once and then stop, guaranteeing a profit of ten thousand.

Honestly, this is the infamous "Martingale strategy," which new traders fall into every few years.

Let's do a simple calculation. Starting from ten thousand and doubling: 10,000, 20,000, 40,000, 80,000, 160,000, 320,000, 640,000. If you lose seven times in a row, on the eighth try you'll need to shell out 1.28 million to break even. By then, a one-million capital has already been wiped out.

Some say the probability of losing seven times in a row is extremely low? In such an environment where traders can easily lose control, losing ten or more times in a row is not rare at all. Anyone who has experienced it knows this often happens.

You might think that a capital of one million should be enough. Wrong. In the face of intense volatility, even a million-dollar fund can't last more than a few minutes. The risks are always much greater than you imagine.

The core of contract trading is not about finding a guaranteed winning formula, but about strict risk management and understanding your own psychology. Any so-called profitable methodology is just a trap to make you use mathematics to cover up greed.