A recent story about a trader turning $12 into $100,000 on Polymarket after winning 16 consecutive bets has gone viral. It sounds incredible, but to be honest—this probability is so low it's almost outrageous.

Let's first look at the pitfalls of odds. Polymarket is a betting market where the prices you see, like 0.4, directly correspond to a 40% chance of winning. It seems straightforward, but countless people have lost because of this.

Now, let's calculate the true probability of winning 16 consecutive bets. It's not just simply (1/2)^16, because there are many low-probability bets involved. Overall, the chance of success is far less than 1/65536—in other words, less than one in ten million.

Why do some people win? Essentially, it's the ultimate survivor bias. With so many people betting worldwide, someone will inevitably hit an extreme outcome. Like a lottery, winners do exist, but that's not really a matter of probability—it's luck.

Stories of such "miracles" are interesting to talk about, but they shouldn't be used as trading guidance. Remember: at that moment, the universe chose him, but in statistics, it's not your turn. It's fundamentally a single-player version of a global lottery.