Looking ahead to 2026, there are three major forces worth monitoring closely: the evolving China-US trade dynamics, how USMCA trade agreements will reshape regional commerce, and whether inflationary pressures persist globally.

These factors aren't just academic—they directly impact capital flows and risk appetite across all asset classes. When inflation expectations shift, central banks adjust policy. When trade tensions spike, safe-haven demand increases. When regional trade agreements reshape supply chains, commodity prices move accordingly.

For crypto markets specifically, macro headwinds matter more than many realize. A stronger US dollar fueled by persistent inflation typically correlates with risk-off sentiment. Conversely, trade friction often drives emerging market volatility, which can redirect institutional capital into alternative stores of value. And USMCA implementation could unlock new compliance pathways for Web3 businesses across North America.

PIIE researchers have historically provided solid macro frameworks for understanding these intersections. Their 2026 watch list deserves attention—especially for anyone positioning portfolios across traditional and digital assets.