2026-01-17 17:21:03

The four-year cycle theory circulating in the crypto market is once again facing a major test. A founder of a leading exchange recently made a bold prediction in a video: 2026 could become the most divided year in crypto history.

His logic is as follows — from a technical perspective, the traditional four-year cycle pattern indeed hints that a bear market may be coming. But from a macro perspective, the current policy environment has completely reversed, and the overall direction is to embrace crypto.

What's more interesting is that the Trump administration might loosen monetary policy and cut interest rates to stabilize the stock market. If these actions are implemented, they could break the curse of historical cycles and push the market into what is called a "super cycle."

In simple terms, this year's crypto market is like being torn apart by two forces: on one side, the cold wind indicated by technical cycles; on the other, the warm wind blown by policy support. Who will win? The market may give an answer beyond expectations.

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ZeroRushCaptain

· 01-20 06:59

Another "super cycle"? Bro, I've heard this prediction so many times, and every time they say this time is different. It wasn't until the moment of the crash that I finally understood what "split" really means.

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DancingCandles

· 01-19 05:44

Two forces are tearing apart. To put it nicely, it's just a gambler's mentality. When the interest rate cuts finally arrive, that's when the real test begins. If the policy suddenly changes and collapses immediately, what should we do? Super cycle? Ha, let's see if we can survive until 2026 first.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 01-18 15:09

Two forces are tearing apart, and who wins still depends on whether the rate cut is effective or not. The rate cut is coming, and the cycle might be irrelevant, but the real question is, will it actually happen? The four-year cycle has been broken countless times before, so don't be too superstitious. Policy friendliness is real, but don't expect it to always be smooth sailing; the market has its own temper. 2026 split year? It feels like a gamble on whether policies can withstand cyclical pressures. A super cycle sounds tempting, but I want to see if the rate cut really happens. Let's wait and see; after all, retail investors are always the ones caught in this uncertainty. Is this really different this time? It seems like someone always says that every time. Policy vs. cycle, it feels like a fierce battle, so be prepared for both sides.

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WalletWhisperer

· 01-17 17:50

the cyclical pattern recognition here is... pedestrian at best. two opposing forces? nah, that's just surface-level noise masking the real behavioral anomaly—whale clustering around support levels tells a completely different story if you know how to read transaction velocity

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ImpermanentTherapist

· 01-17 17:45

The four-year cycle has long been outdated; now policies are the real boss. Super cycle? Sounds like just another prediction that will be proven wrong. Bear market cold wind? Not at all, rate cuts are the real deal. Splitting in 2026? Then I should go all in now, anyway, it's all about tearing apart. Two forces hedge... sounds mystical, but it's really just betting on who can cut the leeks better. Cycle curse? Uh, this time it might really be different, after all, money printing never stops. Policy embracing crypto sounds nice, but what about at critical moments? Still get hammered. Bear markets come and go, anyway, the big V's have already run. Super cycle sounds like it’s all about super harvesting.

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SelfRugger

· 01-17 17:43

It's the cycle theory and super cycle again. Honestly, I'm tired of hearing this set of theories. Hot wind, cold wind? In the end, it's still retail investors getting cut. I think Trump's approach is questionable; maybe he'll change his stance again someday. Is 2026 the most divided? I think it's already quite divided now, okay? Cutting interest rates ≠ saving the coin price. Wake up, everyone. All this talk is less useful than looking at the K-line. Cycle theory is ultimately just a post-hoc explanation. No matter how long the hot wind blows, it can't change the market maker's mindset. This logical flaw is too big; I don't believe it. Who wins? As long as I win, that's enough. The rest doesn't matter.

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RunWhenCut

· 01-17 17:38

Two forces tearing at each other, absolutely spot on. Betting that this wave of policy enthusiasm will win. When interest rates are cut, cryptocurrencies take off; cycles and all that are just clouds of dust. Super cycle? Sounds very aggressive, I just like this feeling of breaking the rules. The four-year cycle theory should have gone bankrupt long ago; macro factors are the real controllers. A friendly policy combined with rate cuts—this combo can't be stopped, right... Honestly, it all depends on whether Trump will really take action; if he doesn't, it's all pointless. If the split in 2026 happens, so be it—I remain bullish. Both forces are needed, both cycle and policy dividends, isn't that reasonable? It feels like the historical cycle curse is really about to be broken this time. Wait, can rate cuts really push the market up? What about the stock market...

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