The triangular system of "U.S. Treasuries—Dollar—Gold" that has supported the global financial markets for decades is experiencing a certain structural break.

This is not just short-term volatility. The latest report from Bank of America reveals three bizarre anomalies: gold and real interest rates have decoupled, the dollar and interest rate spreads have also decoupled, and even local currency bonds in emerging markets and U.S. Treasuries are beginning to diverge. The breakdown of correlations has become the clearest signal of systemic risk.

Why is this happening?

In simple terms, economic data are no longer reliable. Instead, there is a wave of "unprecedented populism in 120 years." The current populist rulers already surpass the historical highs of the 1930s and 1970s. History never repeats, but it often rhymes. This time, the rhyme is clear—over the next decade or so, the economy will grow slowly, inflation will rise, and trade barriers will increase. These will all become the new normal.

Once distrust spreads from emerging markets to developed economies, the basis for pricing shifts entirely from economic data to institutional risk.

At the core of the on-chain dollar competition is: who ultimately benefits from the yield rights?

The U.S. CLARITY Act on the surface is about a compliant framework for stablecoins, but fundamentally it is a fight over the distribution of on-chain dollar yields. The draft directly directs profits to a few banks and custodians, pushing DeFi incentives into a gray area. The issue is not whether there is demand, but whether the U.S. is willing to let transparent, regulated dollar yields stay on open networks—or simply push funds and innovation overseas.

The distribution of yield rights determines everything: whether on-chain dollars are allowed to grow freely within an open ecosystem, or are locked behind the walls of traditional financial institutions.