$RIVER With my current level, I cannot consistently make money during the initial decline because I can't read the trend.

Currently, river has ample liquidity, and the contract holdings are increasing (possibly not increasing the position size because the price has fallen). More importantly: the big players do not have a clear trend in their holdings, and their share of the overall market holdings is also low. A decline might trigger a surge of long positions, with the big players adding longs, and then they push the price back up. Conversely, a rebound might cause the short sellers to take profits and hand their shorts over to the big players.
If you look at the indicators, the high points and the two rebound high points form a downward trend line. But is it really effective? I'm not sure. Because it only reflects the price changes, and the volume changes are not well represented.
Take it slow. For example, if you ask me whether I dare to short the current beat, I still dare because the longs are still trapped. But since market enthusiasm is low, I don't dare to enter with a large position, only opening orders at rebound highs. At the same time, it consumes too much energy and time, and the profits gained are far less than those from a popular altcoin during an upward cycle.