Next Week's Macro Outlook: Trump Returns to Davos, Bank of Japan Rate Decision Imminent

On January 18, next week, Trump will lead a record-sized U.S. delegation back to the Davos Forum and deliver a speech on "How We Can Cooperate in an Increasingly Competitive World." Key discussion topics are expected to include tariff policies, military interventions in Venezuela, and the threat of acquiring Greenland. The U.S. Supreme Court will also hear the case of Federal Reserve Board member Cook, whom Trump has attempted to replace. A ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs may also be announced next week. The upcoming macro events and data releases are summarized as follows:

Monday:
- Trump leads delegation to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting;
- China releases full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, Q4 GDP annualized rate, and total GDP for the year;

Wednesday:
- ECB President Lagarde and BlackRock CEO Fink participate in a discussion at the World Economic Forum;
- Trump delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on "How We Can Cooperate in an Increasingly Competitive World";

Thursday:
- ECB releases December monetary policy meeting minutes;
- U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17;
- U.S. November core PCE price index, personal consumption expenditures monthly rate;
- U.S. Q3 real GDP, final annualized core PCE price index, and final quarterly real personal consumption expenditures;

Friday:
- Japan December core CPI annual rate;
- Bank of Japan rate decision and economic outlook report due by January 23, with Ueda Haruhiko holding a press conference on monetary policy;
- U.S. January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, and January one-year inflation expectations final reading.

Market Holiday Reminder: U.S. markets will be closed on Monday (January 19) in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.