Market always emerges from despair, rises amidst hesitation, and dies in celebration.

— This is the truth of the market and also the fate of most people.

If you have experienced more than one cycle in the crypto world, you will realize one cruel but true fact:
The market is never about making money by “judging the right direction,” but about surviving by “standing in the right position.”
And most people happen to stand in the most dangerous position every time.

1. Despair Phase: When chips are forced out, opportunities have room to emerge

True despair is not the price decline itself,
but that the market no longer discusses “whether it can rise again.”

At this stage, you will see:
After continuous declines, the fall begins to slow down

Bad news keeps coming, but prices no longer effectively break support

Trading volume increases, but the efficiency of the decline decreases

Discussion in groups shifts from market analysis to complaints and silence

So you tell yourself:

“Forget it, I’ll leave first, come back when it’s certain.”

But you must understand:
👉 When you “no longer want to look at the market,” the market is often completing its final clearance.

This is not to tell you to go all-in,
but to remind you:
The real trading opportunities are always born when emotions are at their worst.

2. Hesitation Phase: The market is rising, but confidence is repeatedly shattered
True upward movement rarely comes from a single bullish candle.

Instead:
Raising lows
Pullbacks that do not break previous lows

Every rise is accompanied by doubt

Every pullback washes out a group of people

You will keep hearing:

“This is just a rebound”

“Wait for the pullback to buy again”

“Feels like there’s still a chance”

But the market’s best trick is:
👉 When you hesitate, it quietly raises the price.

When you finally confirm that “the trend is established,”
you will find:
The price is no longer friendly,
and your mindset has started to become anxious.

3. Celebration Phase: The safest feeling is often the most dangerous

The real risk does not appear only on the day of a sharp plunge.

It’s when you realize:
Even those who don’t understand trading are making money
Pullbacks are mocked as “fantasies of missing out”

Leverage is treated as faith
Everyone firmly believes “this time is different”
You will feel an unprecedented sense of security.
But you overlook one thing:
👉 The rise in the market is essentially the latecomers taking over.

When everyone is already in the market,
what the market loses is not confidence,
but future buy orders.

4. The market is not a game of right or wrong, but a contest of emotions and structure

Mature traders do not obsess over predicting the top and bottom,
but keep asking themselves three questions:

Which phase of the emotional cycle are we in?

Where is the price in the structure?

Am I ahead of the curve, or just a passive relay?

You don’t need:
❌ To buy the bottom
❌ To sell the top

You only need to avoid two things:
❌ Cutting losses in despair
❌ Overleveraging in celebration

5. A true useful piece of advice
Market analysis is not about believing, but about utilizing. When you are in the most painful, doubtful, and eager to exit, opportunities are often brewing; when you feel most secure, confident, and eager to add positions, risks are usually already on their way.

The rest is up to time,
and whether you can stick to discipline.
— MK守约