#WillTrumpTakeActiononIran?

🔸In politics, even 24 hours is a very long time. Everything can change at any moment, however.
🔸I agree with his views; when the assessments of reliable foreign policy experts and security analysts, whose opinions are frequently cited, are read together, a cautious but prevailing opinion emerges that Trump's potential action against Iran is pressured by factors such as the need to maintain the image of a "strong leader" in domestic politics, the desire to send a deterrent message to allies, and electoral considerations. However, at the same time, the reflex to avoid a long and costly conflict, the cautious advice of the military bureaucracy, the risk of creating fluctuations in energy markets, and the desire not to completely close off diplomatic maneuvering space, make it more likely that this will remain in the form of limited, measured, and symbolic moves or indirect pressure tools supported by harsh rhetoric, rather than a large-scale war.