Crypto is hard to make money in, but even harder is—holding on.
How many people have bought good coins but got shaken out just as the price started to rise? And how many are still dreaming of the next limit-up when they should be running? The key is whether you can tell if the main force is shaking the price or unloading.
Here are some details I’ve summarized to help you judge:
**Trading Volume is a Weather Vane of Sentiment**
During the shakeout phase, trading volume will noticeably decline, and the market will be very quiet. This is a signal that the main force is creating panic and clearing out floating positions. Conversely, during distribution, volume will pick up again, and you might even see a strange phenomenon—"high volume but stagnant price"—don’t be fooled. At this point, the main force is distributing chips at high levels.
**Price Gains Determine Risk Level**
A correction within a 30% increase? That’s probably a shakeout. But if the increase has already exceeded 60%, and market sentiment is especially euphoric, then a sudden sideways movement or continued rise should raise your alert—this is very likely a tactic to push the price higher and distribute.
**Minute Chart "Acts"**
During shakeouts, the minute chart shows very fierce movements, with rapid drops and rebounds, aiming to scare retail investors. In the distribution phase, the minute chart appears very "stable," oscillating repeatedly within a certain price range, making people think "it won’t fall further," but in reality, the main force is quietly cashing out.
Don’t chase perfect buy or sell points. The real secret to making money is—hold during the shakeout, and run quickly during distribution. The market is like a rhythm game with the main force; understanding it is the key to winning.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
21 Likes
Reward
21
10
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
CryptoPhoenix
· 01-21 12:08
Was washed out again, I knew it [sigh]
This time, I must hold the bottom range, rebirth is just around the corner
View OriginalReply0
BugBountyHunter
· 01-21 02:58
Well said, holding on is the real skill. I've seen too many people washed out.
View OriginalReply0
GateUser-7b078580
· 01-20 22:47
The data shows that this theory is full of flaws. Does increased trading volume necessarily mean distribution? When looking at hourly statistics, miners consuming too much causes gas fees to spike, and the fees can eat into your profits… Wait a bit longer. When the historical lows appear is the real opportunity, although no one dares to confirm which one is the bottom.
View OriginalReply0
DataChief
· 01-20 15:57
That's right, it's all about mindset. I've seen too many people who don't sell even after a 60% increase, only to get stuck with negative returns.
View OriginalReply0
SolidityNewbie
· 01-18 17:48
It's easy to say but hard to do. I'm the kind of unlucky person who gets washed out.
View OriginalReply0
UnluckyLemur
· 01-18 17:46
That's right, but the real challenge is execution. Once your mindset collapses, everything is over.
View OriginalReply0
TokenTaxonomist
· 01-18 17:42
per my analysis... the volume taxonomy here is statistically sound, but tbh most retail accounts just won't have the discipline to parse wash vs. distribution phases. the 60% threshold classification is taxonomically correct tho, actually. let me pull up my spreadsheet—data suggests the intraday pattern recognition framework checks out. *nods in spreadsheet*
Reply0
WhaleStalker
· 01-18 17:35
Everyone's right, but execution is really too difficult, truly.
View OriginalReply0
LiquidationAlert
· 01-18 17:29
Basically, it's a mindset issue; those who can't hold on are all being driven by emotions.
Crypto is hard to make money in, but even harder is—holding on.
How many people have bought good coins but got shaken out just as the price started to rise? And how many are still dreaming of the next limit-up when they should be running? The key is whether you can tell if the main force is shaking the price or unloading.
Here are some details I’ve summarized to help you judge:
**Trading Volume is a Weather Vane of Sentiment**
During the shakeout phase, trading volume will noticeably decline, and the market will be very quiet. This is a signal that the main force is creating panic and clearing out floating positions. Conversely, during distribution, volume will pick up again, and you might even see a strange phenomenon—"high volume but stagnant price"—don’t be fooled. At this point, the main force is distributing chips at high levels.
**Price Gains Determine Risk Level**
A correction within a 30% increase? That’s probably a shakeout. But if the increase has already exceeded 60%, and market sentiment is especially euphoric, then a sudden sideways movement or continued rise should raise your alert—this is very likely a tactic to push the price higher and distribute.
**Minute Chart "Acts"**
During shakeouts, the minute chart shows very fierce movements, with rapid drops and rebounds, aiming to scare retail investors. In the distribution phase, the minute chart appears very "stable," oscillating repeatedly within a certain price range, making people think "it won’t fall further," but in reality, the main force is quietly cashing out.
Don’t chase perfect buy or sell points. The real secret to making money is—hold during the shakeout, and run quickly during distribution. The market is like a rhythm game with the main force; understanding it is the key to winning.