2026-01-18 18:22:36

The FOMC meeting is just 10 days away, and this meeting could become a turning point for the crypto market.

Based on current market expectation data, the probability of a rate cut in January is only 4.4%, almost out of the picture. However, the latest inflation data tells a different story — US core inflation is significantly declining.

The key question is: Will Powell announce a rate cut this month? This decision will have a profound impact on the trends of mainstream assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The market is waiting, and the data will speak. If inflation continues to improve, even with a low probability in January, subsequent policy shifts could accelerate. Senior institutions have already begun increasing their Bitcoin holdings. What are they betting on?

BTC-0,81%

ETH-2,27%

SOL0,35%

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DaoGovernanceOfficer

· 01-21 04:45

nah the market's literally pricing in everything already - if powell actually cuts this month i'll eat my governance tokens. the real play is watching what the institutions are actually *doing* vs what they're saying in interviews, not this 4.4% theater everyone's obsessing over

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GreenCandleCollector

· 01-21 00:03

Is it true that inflation is easing? It feels like they said earlier that interest rate cuts are unlikely, and now they're starting to find reasons again. Institutions are accumulating chips, while retail investors are still watching the data. What exactly does Powell want to do? I can't understand this guy. If there's no cut in January, then we'll wait for later. Anyway, Bitcoin has to go through some turbulence.

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StealthMoon

· 01-20 05:47

If these inflation data continue to improve, the probability of Powell being forced to cut interest rates will rise, and Bitcoin should take off then. --- 4.4% is really heartbreaking, but institutions have already been deploying, indicating they know something. --- Waiting to see what the FOMC says; it feels like this will really be a watershed moment. --- The signal of core inflation easing cannot be ignored; the market's reaction might be a bit slow. --- Senior institutions are increasing their holdings? Then I can't just watch; I need to think about how to keep up.

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CryptoTarotReader

· 01-18 18:50

The decline in inflation is indeed interesting. Institutions have already quietly started to buy in, while retail investors are still debating the 4.4% probability haha. --- The expectation of rate cuts is so weak, but core inflation is dropping... Powell's move is a bit frustrating. --- Are seasoned institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings? That shows they don't believe the official dovish statements at all, hilarious. --- Let's see how the ten days of the FOMC unfold. It feels like Bitcoin is holding its breath. --- The 4.4% probability is almost out, and some people still expect rate cuts? Wake up, everyone. --- Core inflation has fallen sharply, but rate cuts haven't come yet. Isn't this the biggest market contradiction? --- Institutions are betting on an accelerated shift, and we retail investors can only follow the trend and buy, buy, buy.

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LayerHopper

· 01-18 18:50

Core inflation is trending downward, and institutions are frantically buying the dip in Bitcoin. They really understand this move.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 01-18 18:41

Powell, this guy needs to give an explanation. We'll see the real deal in 10 days. Institutions accumulating BTC—what does that indicate? If inflation really turns around, then we might have a chance. However, honestly, a 4.4% probability is a bit of a blow. It depends on whether the core inflation data will continue to be strong.

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BearHugger

· 01-18 18:24

If Powell really cuts interest rates, I’ll just vomit. Is he just trying to fool us into taking the bait by claiming core inflation is falling?

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GhostAddressMiner

· 01-18 18:24

4.4% this number has long been outdated. Looking at the fund flows of those whale addresses on the chain reveals the truth. The migration patterns of BTC held by institutions have already exposed their chip distribution. Don't be fooled by superficial probabilities.

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