Looking at a circle of historical data on bull and bear cycles, Bitcoin's current situation is quite interesting.

Following the usual pattern, the weekly chart should continue to rise for about another half month, with the target roughly between 105,000 and 109,000 USD. If it starts to turn downward at this point, it would mean entering another bear market cycle.

But can this time break the norm? If history does not repeat itself, Bitcoin might directly enter a crazy bull market or a slow, steady rally. If that happens, not only could it hit new highs, but it might even go beyond what’s reasonable.

The key depends on the next half month. Will it follow the old path step by step, or suddenly grow wildly—two very different directions are now in front of us.