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A certain prediction market has launched a contract regarding the official confirmation of extraterrestrial existence, to be disclosed before 2027. Someone has bet $5,000 to potentially earn $48,000—implying odds of about 10-12%. This transaction has attracted quite a bit of attention, especially since some positions seem to be sizable. Is this a sign of participants' strong confidence, or just betting on that highly asymmetric payoff structure? Or perhaps it's more about the psychological gambler's mindset? Market data will tell.