There is an increasingly realistic paradox circulating in the crypto market: after institutions arrive, retail investors find it harder to make money through long-term holding. In the past, as long as you could withstand the volatility, there was a chance to win. Now, you not only need to endure the fluctuations but also avoid being harvested by institutions to truly survive.

Looking at January 2026, Bitcoin is firmly above $95,000, with Bitcoin spot ETF holdings surpassing 1.5 million coins, and the share of Wall Street funds soaring to 38%. The market landscape has completely changed — no longer is it the chaotic era where retail investors hold the power. Every long-term holder is asking themselves: Is buying with institutions really safe? Or are we just providing liquidity for institutions to offload? Should we hold our positions stubbornly, or adjust flexibly?

Having experienced five bull and bear cycles and now in the ETF era, a very sobering conclusion is that the so-called long-term holding is no longer the naive “buy and forget” approach. The current game rule is “dancing with institutions” — understanding what institutions are doing is essential to decide your own rhythm. Retail investors still clinging to old strategies risk being shaken out during institutional shakeouts or getting deeply trapped when the bubble bursts.

The retail investors who can laugh last have grasped the new long-term holding logic of the ETF era. The most critical point is: the cycle itself has changed.

Stop believing the old saying that “halving equals a 4-year cycle.” The emergence of ETFs has layered the global liquidity cycle, institutional allocation cycle, and halving cycle together. The result is: the current cycle is no longer a simple “4-year wave,” but a “prolonged main bull run combined with increasingly intense institutional shakeouts.”

Specifically, the current rhythm is roughly as follows: the incubation period usually lasts 6 to 12 months after ETF approval, during which institutions quietly accumulate positions, and the market shows a sideways upward trend — and right now, we are in this phase. Next, there will be an explosive period when institutional positions are fully loaded and retail investors start following the trend, which is when the main bull run truly begins. Understanding this new logic allows long-term holders to shift from passive entrapment to active participation.