At 4:47 AM, BTC/USDT volatility within the past hour dropped again to 0.06%, triggering another warning for consolidation and sideways movement. The current price is 95,337, and this frustrating market trend continues.

The bullish logic still holds. Although the hourly chart shows narrow fluctuations, the upward structure on the daily and 4-hour charts remains intact without any critical signals indicating a need to change direction.

From a technical perspective, the daily ADX is as high as 46.4, indicating a strong bullish trend, with +DI at 29.0 significantly surpassing -DI at 10.6. More importantly, the daily OBV continues to show net inflow, and the CMF at 0.202 indicates buying pressure is clearly dominant. The MFI at 55 leans towards neutral but slightly bullish. These indicators combined suggest the upward trend is not over. The 4-hour ADX is only 6.2, indicating clear consolidation, but the bulls still hold the advantage. The 1-hour ADX at 14.7 also shows a bullish tendency within consolidation. The multi-timeframe consistency score is 75.4%, indicating a bullish trend. Looking at the daily moving average alignment, MA20 (92,233) and MA50 (90,324) are both below the price, maintaining a bullish arrangement.

On the liquidity front, buy-side dominance is at 60.8%, but distribution is uneven. Major exchanges show buy-side advantages above 85%, while Kraken shows a sell-side advantage. This suggests a potential trap if relying solely on one exchange; comprehensive data across the network is necessary. Currently, the overall market signals remain bullish, with good liquidity scale, suitable for large trades.

Price positioning is interesting. The current price is about 9.46% below the daily VWAP, which typically indicates bearishness, yet the daily chart shows a strong bullish trend—this is a divergence to watch. However, the 1-hour VWAP deviation is +0.93%, favoring bulls intraday. The large order buy/sell ratio is 61.9% towards buyers, with a net inflow of $340,000. The market's greed index is 49, in the neutral zone, indicating calm sentiment. By the way, today is a major political event day, with high risk levels, so it’s advisable to hold light positions or stay on the sidelines.

What’s the trading strategy? The daily trend is intact, but short-term consolidation plus major event risks suggest a cautious approach. I recommend light long positions, buying on dips at key support zones. The first support is at 95,266 (1-hour MA50), with strong supports at 94,975 and 94,886 (Fibonacci 78.6%). The first resistance is at 95,621. Due to event risks, reduce position sizes by half; the usual 15% scale should now be limited to 7-8%.

Currently, the multi-timeframe relative position is in the middle zone, with an overall score of 75.4%. Key support levels are at 95,266 and 95,621. Downside supports are at 95,266, 94,975, and 94,886; resistance levels are at 95,621, 95,894, and 97,571. If the price falls below 94,975, it may directly test the daily MA200 at 93,918. Although buy orders are concentrated on a few platforms, the overall network remains buy-biased. If these buy supports hold the daily and 4-hour bullish structures, an upward breakout is possible. However, the current position is neither the worst nor the best, and with major event uncertainties, caution is essential.

Market behavior tends to compress volatility before major events, like a spring being squeezed tighter, which can lead to a sharp rebound afterward. As traders, we don’t need to bet on the direction. When risks are clear, control your positions and protect your capital. Wait for the market to establish a clear trend before adding more—this is the key to long-term survival.

【Core Position Summary】
Direction: Long
Stop Loss: 94,800 USDT
Support: 95,266 / 94,975 / 94,886 USDT
Resistance: 95,621 / 95,894 / 97,571 USDT
Take Profit: 96,500 USDT

⚠️ The current trend strength is moderate; closely monitor price movements, and consider taking profits early when approaching resistance.

⚠️ Risk Warning: This content is based on algorithmic analysis and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously according to your own risk tolerance.