【ETH Structural Positioning: Bearish Dominance After Breakdown】

The price has effectively broken below the key daily support zone (3315-3320) and is currently below all major moving averages. MA5 (3207) is intertwined with the price, indicating a very weak trend. The structure has shifted from “high-level oscillation” to “clear decline.”

Bull and bear logic deduction:

· Bearish logic (dominant): Key support platform lost, trend turns bearish. Moving averages are arranged in a bearish pattern, MACD has a death cross below the zero line with expanding green bars, indicating strong downward momentum. The target is to push the price toward the next support level (3050-3100). Rebounds are opportunities to add positions or open new shorts.
· Bullish logic (countertrend): RSI (24.74) enters oversold territory, indicating a short-term technical correction is needed. However, a rebound requires at least reclaiming MA10 (3269) and stabilizing to reverse the extremely weak structure, which currently appears very difficult.

Key levels and operational framework:

1. Resistance zone: 3230-3260 (around MA5 and former support turned resistance) as the first resistance, 3300-3320 (original support platform) as the core strong resistance.
2. Support zone: No effective support currently; the next reference area is 3050-3100 (previous dense trading zone).
3. Operation framework:
· Bearish strategy: Wait patiently for the price to rebound to 3230-3260 area, and enter when signs of stagnation appear. Alternatively, if the price weakly consolidates and then breaks down, consider light positions to follow the trend. Stop-loss above 3300.
· Bullish strategy: Only when the price quickly reaches the 3050-3100 support zone and shows clear hourly divergence with volume rebound, can a very small position be used to attempt a rebound, with a stop-loss below 3050. In the current environment, this strategy carries very high risk.

Conclusion: The market is in a unilateral downtrend. Any rebound should be viewed as an opportunity to exit or short rather than a reversal signal. Maintain a bearish mindset until the price reclaims 3320, avoiding left-side bottom fishing.

Subscribers can access Fibonacci extension target calculations for the current decline wave and real-time signals from the rebound strength monitoring system.

Disclaimer: The above analysis is for market opinion sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency volatility is extremely high; please ensure proper risk management and independent decision-making. #周末行情分析