"Bitcoin halving cycle" fails? The market has matured and the pattern has been rewritten

The “4-year bull-bear cycle” that once dominated the cryptocurrency market seems to be losing its magic. As the Bitcoin market gradually integrates into the global financial system, research institutions like K33 Research are beginning to question whether this long-held cyclical law still applies.

From Supply Shocks to Macro Drivers - The Diminishing Magic of Halving

Bitcoin halving cycles have been the most reliable forecasting tool in the market. The four-year halving mechanism (the most recent one occurred in April 2024) aims to reduce mining supply and curb inflationary pressures. Looking back at history, the three halvings in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020 almost always served as the starting gun for a bull run. After each halving, Bitcoin often reached new highs the following year, making this pattern quite precise.

However, historical data is no longer sufficient for predictions. In the early days, Bitcoin’s market size was limited, and circulation was scarce; the supply shock from halving could easily trigger a sharp price surge. At that time, the market was essentially a pure supply and demand game.

Today’s situation is different. With global institutional funds continuously flowing in and sovereign funds around the world making strategic moves, Bitcoin has long surpassed the niche investment category. As this asset gradually enters the mainstream financial arena, simply reducing supply can no longer dominate price movements.

Institutional Entry Reshapes the Game - Bull-Bear Cycles Face Re-Definition

The shift in market dynamics has brought about fundamental changes. Macroeconomic factors such as overall economic conditions, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks are now the main drivers of Bitcoin’s trend. K33 Research’s analysis indicates that the traditional halving effect is no longer as prominent as before. This is not a failure of the halving mechanism but a deep evolution in market pricing logic.

In other words, Bitcoin halving cycles are gradually evolving from being a “trigger point” to a “reference factor.” Under the interplay of abundant or tight global liquidity, rotation in risk asset valuations, and fluctuations in inflation expectations, the relative influence of halving is inevitably being diluted.

Reflexivity Turns to Responsiveness - Deep Transformation of Bitcoin’s Asset Properties

This transformation reflects an evolution in Bitcoin’s own asset characteristics. In the past, Bitcoin was a highly speculative asset with a strong “reflexivity” trait—rising prices attracted new buyers, who chased the rally, further pushing prices higher, creating a self-reinforcing cycle.

Today, Bitcoin is evolving into a more mature “responsive” asset. It begins to genuinely reflect macroeconomic fundamentals rather than being driven solely by market sentiment and supply shocks. This marks a move toward market rationality and is also a clear sign of Bitcoin’s gradual transition from a speculative instrument to a store of value.

The Bitcoin halving cycle is not broken; rather, during the market’s evolution, it has gradually lost its “decisive” power. This may be bad news for traders hoping to replicate history, but for investors optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term value, it signals that the market is moving toward greater maturity and rationality.