Can Seeker avoid Saga's two-year decline? The second attempt to break the Web3 mobile phone dilemma

When Solana Saga announced its discontinuation, 20,000 early users faced an awkward reality—the flagship device they spent $1,000 on was rapidly becoming “electronic waste.” This Web3 phone, which once sparked market frenzy through airdrops, lasted only two years from launch to curtain call, leaving behind not just a record of business failure but also a profound question for the entire industry. As Solana Mobile pushes forward with the second-generation product Seeker, will this history repeat itself? It has become one of the industry’s most pressing concerns.

Saga’s Two-Year Failure: The Unavoidable Choice Behind the Shutdown

Saga’s abrupt exit is truly lamentable. According to industry norms, a smartphone typically enjoys 5-7 years of technical support, but Saga lasted only 24 months before ceasing operations. The reasons are both pragmatic and helpless—this is a double failure of business and technology.

Sales data show Saga sold only 20,000 units, far below the 25,000-50,000 units that Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko expected as the “developer ecosystem critical point.” For traditional phone manufacturers, this number is almost catastrophic. Even niche brands usually operate with tens of thousands of units. Investing long-term maintenance resources into a product line with only 20,000 users yields a cost-benefit ratio close to zero.

Adding to the woes, OSOM, the hardware manufacturer responsible, declared bankruptcy in September 2024, rendering firmware updates and driver optimizations impossible. Under such circumstances, abandoning Saga became a rational and inevitable business decision for Solana Mobile.

From a product perspective, Saga was indeed a well-equipped flagship Android phone. Its built-in security module and native dApp store theoretically addressed asset security and app access pain points for heavy crypto users. But the market responded with a harsh reality—ordinary smartphones can also perform 99% of Web3 operations, and the remaining 1% of experience optimization seems insufficient to justify a premium for consumers.

More critically, there are long-term risks. Over time, Saga will face increasing security vulnerabilities. For a device designed specifically to handle encrypted assets securely, this is a betrayal of its core value. Meanwhile, continuous updates to Android and its apps will cause Saga to gradually fall behind, with potential application failures and feature obsolescence inevitable.

Ironically, Saga’s sales miracle was not due to breakthrough hardware but was redefined by the market as a “financial arbitrage tool.” This model inherently carries risks—it attracts profit-seeking speculators rather than loyal ecosystem users. Once the airdrop expectations fade, demand can evaporate instantly.

From Obscurity to Scarcity: How Airdrops Reversed Sales Fate

Saga’s sales curve was a roller coaster. Launched in May 2023 at a price of $1,000, directly competing with flagship Apple and Samsung devices, the market’s indifference was unexpected—after half a year, sales hovered around 2,200-2,500 units. An August price cut of 40% to $599 failed to reverse the downward trend. Tech reviewer MKBHD even labeled it the “Most Failed Smartphone of 2023,” a title that accurately summarized the situation.

The turning point came from an unexpected catalyst—BONK, a MEME coin. Each Saga came with 30 million BONK tokens, initially worth almost nothing. But as the Solana ecosystem rebounded strongly at the end of 2023, BONK’s price skyrocketed. By mid-December, a single airdrop was worth over $1,000, far exceeding the $599 retail price.

An arbitrage mechanism emerged. Viral social media buzz simplified the message: buy phone → claim airdrop → profit instantly. Sales exploded—more than tenfold growth within 48 hours, with Saga quickly selling out in the US and Europe. The secondary market was even more frantic, with new, unopened Saga units bidding up to $5,000 on eBay—eight times the official retail price.

This reversal offered Solana Mobile a new perspective—that airdrop expectations could become a sales engine. They seized the opportunity and announced Seeker just one month after Saga sold out, in January 2024.

Seeker Learns from the Past: Can It Break the Web3 Phone Curse?

Seeker appears to have learned from Saga’s painful lessons. The price was sharply reduced to $450-500, hardware was repositioned from flagship to mid-range, targeting a broader mass market. In terms of product design, Seeker inherits Saga’s Web3 DNA—built-in native wallet, decentralized app store, improved security architecture—but with a more rational overall cost structure.

Market response validated this adjustment. Driven by strong expectations for future airdrops, Seeker’s pre-orders surpassed 60,000 within three weeks, eventually exceeding 150,000, projected to generate over $67.5 million in revenue. More importantly, pre-order customers have already gained more than the cost of the phone through token airdrops like $MEW and $MANEKI—this time, the airdrop expectation cycle was incorporated into the business model from the start.

Ecosystem development is another key differentiator for Seeker. The official launched a native token SKR to incentivize developers and users, now with over 160 applications in the ecosystem. Seeker partnered with wallet app Backpack to waive the first $1,000 fee, and collaborated with NFT project Moonbirds to launch exclusive SBT airdrops. These efforts aim to make Seeker not just an “airdrop ticket” but also an “ecosystem hub.”

Ecosystem Building and Product Strength: The True Challenges Facing Seeker

But a fundamental question remains unanswered: Is the Web3 phone a genuine demand or a false one? Saga’s lesson shows that while airdrop incentives can drive sales, they cannot sustain usage. The phenomenon of buying without using is widespread—after the shutdown announcement, social media shows almost no reactions from actual users, implying Saga’s active user base might be far below the number of airdrop recipients.

For Seeker to break through, it must answer three ultimate questions: First, what is the core competitive advantage of a Web3 phone? If it’s merely an “airdrop ticket,” then are the heavy hardware maintenance costs truly necessary? Second, in today’s highly mature smartphone market, besides crypto features, what core value can Seeker offer? Third, can the 160+ application ecosystem truly retain users, or will it still be a gathering place for airdrop hunters?

Seeker’s market foundation is indeed more solid than Saga’s—150,000 pre-registrations form a substantial initial user base, and SKR ecosystem incentives are more comprehensive. But until these critical questions are truly answered, Seeker remains shadowed by Saga. The two-year window has begun, and whether Solana Mobile can write a different ending depends on whether it can truly upgrade the “financial ticket” into an “ecosystem product.”