Bitcoin loses ground against the US dollar amid volatile trends, with over $860 million in liquidation this week.

This week’s cryptocurrency market started off uneventfully. Against the backdrop of a strong US dollar trend, Bitcoin faced multiple setbacks on the morning of the 19th, sliding from above $95,000 and ultimately breaking below the key round figure of $93,000. As of the latest data on the 22nd, BTC trading price is $89.94K, up 0.94% in the past 24 hours. The recent pullback has repeatedly exposed the market’s underlying fragility.

Strong US dollar boosts risk aversion sentiment, bulls trigger massive liquidations

According to CoinGlass data, during the defense of the $95,000–$97,000 range, the cryptocurrency derivatives market experienced over $860 million in forced liquidations in the past 24 hours, with as much as $780 million coming from long positions. This figure reveals a key issue: during the previous rebound, bullish bets were heavily concentrated, and once the trend reversed, it triggered “chasing” liquidations, exacerbating the decline.

On the other hand, global risk aversion sentiment has driven gold prices to new highs, rising 1.7% to $4,600 per ounce. The US announced a 10% tariff increase on seven European countries including Denmark and hinted that it would not make concessions until a comprehensive acquisition agreement with Greenland is completed. Geopolitical risks are rising, further strengthening the appeal of US dollar safe-haven assets, creating a tug-of-war with cryptocurrencies.

Derivative markets struggle to sustain momentum, spot market weakness remains a hidden risk

On-chain analysis firm Glassnode’s weekly report pointed out that Bitcoin’s previous attack on $96,000 heavily relied on derivative “mechanical” stacking, mainly driven by forced buying triggered by short squeezes, rather than active support from the spot market. Futures market liquidity remains thin, and once forced buying pressure diminishes, prices could reverse sharply.

The firm also highlighted a critical resistance zone—the “supply cluster” accumulated by long-term holders at cycle highs—which has repeatedly doused recent rebound flames. This indicates that the interaction between the US dollar trend and the crypto market is not one-way; internal market structure fragility is the fundamental issue.

Diverging institutional stances and lingering doubts about a bear market rebound

Analysis firm CryptoQuant adopts a more cautious stance, believing that the trend since late November resembles a “bear market rebound” rather than the start of a new bull run. The report emphasizes that Bitcoin is still below the 365-day moving average (around $101,000)—a line traditionally viewed as the “bull-bear dividing line.” Although spot demand has slightly improved, the overall structure has not undergone substantial change. US Bitcoin spot ETF fund inflows remain weak, which is a key basis for judging a bear market rebound.

Early signs of bottoming out, but caution remains necessary

There are some bright spots in the market. Compared to the end of 2025, the pace of long-term holder distribution has significantly slowed. Spot funds on major exchanges like Binance have shifted to buyer dominance, and Coinbase’s selling pressure is easing. These signs suggest the market may be brewing a bottom.

Options markets reflect this delicate uncertainty—implied volatility remains low, but long-term contracts still contain downside protection, indicating investor sentiment is cautious.

Key outlook: the dual impact of US dollar trend and spot demand

Both institutions agree that before sustained spot demand truly returns, Bitcoin will be highly sensitive to changes in leverage and liquidity. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, it will further pressure crypto risk appetite; conversely, if the dollar weakens, market reactions could become more acute. Investors should remain vigilant for increased volatility and exercise caution until substantial demand signals are confirmed.