The "HODL forever" policy is shaken! Strategy first admits that there may be a need to sell coins during a crisis

For years, under the leadership of Chairman Michael Saylor, Bitcoin investment giant Strategy has adhered to a steadfast buy-and-hold investment philosophy. However, CEO Phong Le recently broke the silence, admitting that under certain crisis conditions, the company indeed “may” sell its Bitcoin assets. This statement marks the first loosening of Strategy’s “never sell” stance.

Two Major Crisis Conditions Trigger Voluntary Sell Mechanism

In an interview on the well-known podcast “What Bitcoin Did,” Phong Le publicly disclosed a set of “crisis trigger conditions.” Strategy does not sell Bitcoin indiscriminately but would consider doing so only when two specific scenarios occur simultaneously:

The first condition involves the “Market Value to Net Asset Value ratio” (mNAV) falling below 1. In other words, when the company’s market value is less than the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings, this valuation inversion will serve as a crisis signal.

The second condition is “liquidity exhaustion”—the company can no longer raise funds through issuing equity or bonds. Once trapped in this predicament, financing channels will be completely cut off.

The CEO emphasized that the board currently has no plans to sell Bitcoin, but if financial conditions worsen, this option will be “definitely considered.” Only when these two conditions are met simultaneously will Strategy be forced to take this step.

mNAV Approaching Warning Line, Liquidity Risks Emerge

Data shows that Strategy’s current mNAV has fallen to around 0.95, just a step away from the “warning line” at 0.9. Several market analysts warn that if it drops below this critical threshold, Strategy may be forced to sell Bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends.

This is not alarmist. Strategy must pay between $750 million and $800 million annually in preferred dividends—costs incurred from issuing financial instruments back when the company bought more Bitcoin.

Annual Dividends Difficult to Cover, Financing Options Narrowing

In the past, Strategy mainly relied on issuing new shares to cover these substantial annual dividend payments. However, reality has changed. With the company’s stock price dropping more than 60% from its peak and market confidence shaken, this traditional financing route is gradually shrinking.

The increased difficulty of issuing new shares means Strategy must seek alternative funding sources. But in the current volatile Bitcoin market, whether alternative financing options can be found remains uncertain.

SEC Warning, Risks During Bitcoin Pullback

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued early warnings in related documents: if Bitcoin enters a deep correction phase, Strategy’s liquidity risk will rise sharply. Although the structure of convertible bonds avoids “forced liquidation” or forced margin calls, Phong Le’s recent statement clearly reveals—Strategy does have a “voluntary sell” trigger mechanism defined by a mathematical model.

This set of crisis conditions is not a sudden idea but a risk management framework carefully considered by the board. If market conditions become sufficiently severe, this originally paper-based plan could be activated.

Strategy’s story becomes particularly complex in times of crisis. The company is no longer just an “eternal buyer” but an investor forced to face reality—balancing between maintaining conviction and risk prevention.