Citi's Bold BTC Prediction for 2025: $143,000 as Base Case Scenario

Wall Street’s Citi Bank has thrown down a significant marker for Bitcoin’s trajectory over the coming 12 months. According to their latest research led by Alex Saunders, the bank’s head of global quantitative macro strategy, the BTC prediction centers on a $143,000 base case—a substantial move from current levels around $88,370. But the analysts didn’t stop there. Their forecast maps out three distinct scenarios: a bullish case targeting above $189,000, a base case hitting $143,000, and a bearish scenario where prices could sink to $78,500 if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate sharply.

The foundation of Citi’s optimism rests on two pillars: continued institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs and a friendlier regulatory environment in the United States. The bank assumes sustained flows into Bitcoin ETFs totaling around $15 billion, which would provide consistent demand support. Additionally, they point to pending U.S. Senate negotiations over the Clarity Act—legislation that would place Bitcoin under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight—as a potential game-changer for institutional participation.

Major Banks Signal Institutional Shift Toward Bitcoin

Recent moves by heavyweight financial institutions validate Citi’s bullish thesis. Two weeks ago, Bank of America sent a clear signal to its wealth management division, instructing advisers to allocate 1% to 4% of client portfolios to digital assets. This directive reached over 15,000 advisers across Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge—a monumental shift in approach that essentially green-lights cryptocurrency recommendations to millions of clients.

Days later, PNC Bank amplified the institutional momentum by launching direct spot Bitcoin trading for its Private Bank clients. Rather than forcing customers to use external exchanges, PNC now allows them to buy, hold, and sell Bitcoin natively through its own platform, powered by Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure. These aren’t minor upgrades; they signal that legacy financial institutions are moving beyond skepticism to active enablement.

Breaking Down BTC Prediction Scenarios: The Three Pathways

Base Case: $143,000 by End of 2025

The $143,000 target assumes regulatory clarity materializes and ETF inflows persist. This represents roughly a 62% gain from current price levels, reflecting Citi’s confidence in sustained institutional demand. The analysts noted that ETF outflows have moderated in recent weeks—a positive signal after aggressive redemptions earlier in the cycle.

Bullish Scenario: Above $189,000

If macroeconomic conditions remain benign and regulatory tailwinds accelerate institutional adoption beyond current assumptions, Bitcoin could breach $189,000. This would represent a near-doubling from current prices and would establish a new all-time high, surpassing the previous ATH of $126,080.

Bearish Scenario: $78,500 Risk Zone

The downside case assumes recessionary pressures, broader risk-asset deterioration, and policy reversal. A $78,500 target would imply a 12% decline from current levels, though Bitcoin’s ability to recover even in stress scenarios has improved with institutional adoption.

Market Consolidation: Technical Signals and Real Resistance

Bitcoin’s recent price action tells a story of a market struggling to break higher despite positive catalysts. After briefly testing $89,000 on cooler-than-expected inflation data—with November CPI easing to 2.7% year-over-year and core inflation at 2.6%—BTC quickly retreated toward the $84,000 zone. This pattern of sharp rallies followed by quick retracements has now persisted for over two months.

Technically, Bitcoin remains range-bound with critical resistance just below $90,000. Support levels sit near $84,000, though that floor is gradually weakening. A decisive breakdown could trigger a move toward the $72,000–$68,000 zone, where analysts expect stronger demand to re-emerge. Interestingly, extreme fear readings on the Fear and Greed Index suggest the market may be overshooting on the downside, hinting at potential undervaluation—yet near-term momentum still favors sellers.

The ETF Headwind Nobody’s Talking About

A critical factor complicating Bitcoin’s rally attempts is the shift in ETF flows. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have transitioned from their earlier consistent inflows to net redemptions, removing the stabilizing bid that previously absorbed sell pressure during corrections. This withdrawal of the “dumb money” bid makes breakouts far more difficult to sustain, even when positive news should theoretically drive prices higher.

November’s $18,000 decline marked Bitcoin’s largest dollar drop since May 2021, partly attributable to heavy investor withdrawals coinciding with broader macro concerns over technology valuations. The combination of weak flows and lingering risk-off sentiment has created a challenging near-term environment, despite Citi’s longer-term optimism.

What Could Unlock the Predicted Upside?

The path to Citi’s $143,000 target hinges on several variables falling into place. Federal Reserve policy clarity—particularly confirmation of rate cuts in 2026 if economic data justifies it—would remove a major uncertainty cloud. The current backdrop of rising unemployment and uneven job growth suggests the Fed will move cautiously, but any dovish shift could quickly alter sentiment.

Regulatory clarity through the Clarity Act would be equally transformative, potentially unlocking a new wave of institutional capital. Combined with steady ETF accumulation and signs of stabilization in macro conditions, the conditions for a sustained rally toward Citi’s base case scenario could materialize within 12 months.

At current levels near $88,370, Bitcoin’s BTC prediction for the next year depends on whether these catalysts align. The bank’s three-scenario framework—bearish ($78,500), base ($143,000), and bullish (>$189,000)—captures the full spectrum of outcomes, but the direction ultimately hinges on adoption trends, regulatory progress, and macroeconomic stability.