From a short-term technical perspective, Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range of $88,000 to $89,000 over the past two days, and this zone is very critical. It was previously a strong support level but has now become the main battleground between bulls and bears. On the four-hour chart, the price has repeatedly tested the middle Bollinger Band at $88,500 but faced resistance and pulled back. The rebound volume is clearly insufficient. After spiking to $88,828 yesterday, it quickly retreated, indicating typical weak buying pressure. Currently, the overall structure remains a weak oscillation without a clear reversal signal.

Looking at key levels, the $86,500-$87,000 zone below is the core support area tested multiple times recently and is also the lifeline for the bulls. Holding this zone means the short-term oscillation pattern will not break. A confirmed break below this area would likely lead to further downside to fill the gap. On the upside, resistance is at $88,800-$89,500, especially at $89,500, which was a previous breakdown point. Only with increased volume and a firm hold above this level can the short-term weakness be reversed, offering a chance to retest the $90,000 psychological level. Otherwise, any rebound will be just technical correction.

From the perspective of market sentiment and capital flow, the current crypto fear and greed index is at 29, in the fear zone. While there is potential for a oversold rebound, capital remains cautious. US spot Bitcoin ETF still shows net outflows, stablecoin market cap is shrinking, and market liquidity is tight. Additionally, gold has hit a new high of $5,000, siphoning safe-haven funds. Bitcoin lacks incremental capital support in the short term, which is a core reason for the weak technical rebound.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, with the moving averages overall bearish and no signs of a trend reversal. The short-term trend is a bottoming and corrective oscillation, not a trend reversal. Therefore, avoid chasing highs; resistance during rebounds suggests a defensive approach.