Gold prices are expected to reach $8,900 by 2030—Long-term gold investment considering inflation and geopolitical risks

As the shift toward a new financial order progresses, long-term prospects for gold prices are attracting increased attention. Multiple macroeconomic analyses suggest that gold prices could reach $8,900 by the end of 2030, and understanding the market background that underpins these forecasts is crucial for formulating future investment strategies.

Why Are Bullish Gold Predictions Now Particularly Convincing—Market Context Indicated by AI Analysis

Market analysis based on Dow Theory classifies a bull market into three stages. It begins with the accumulation phase and is currently evaluated to be in the stage of general investor participation. In this phase, speculative interest rises, new financial products are issued successively, and analysts raise target prices—a typical pattern observed during market rallies.

Over the past five years, gold prices have increased by 92%, while the purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 50% during the same period. The current trend closely follows the “inflation scenario” trajectory depicted in models forecasted in 2020, positioning itself well above the baseline scenario.

Data indicates that in 2024, gold priced in US dollars will set a new all-time high 43 times, ranking second only to the 57 record highs in 1979. Currently, technical breakouts are forming across multiple market indicators, establishing gold’s relative strength compared to traditional assets.

Central Bank Demand and General Investor Participation—Two Major Pillars Supporting Gold Price Growth

Amid the major upheaval of global financial restructuring, demand from central banks for gold purchases has become a key support for gold prices. Since the freezing of Russia’s foreign currency reserves in 2022, central banks worldwide have been actively increasing their gold reserves, achieving consecutive purchases of over 1,000 tons in the past three years.

Particularly notable is the fact that purchases by Asian central banks constitute a large portion of total demand. The People’s Bank of China is expected to continue buying approximately 40 tons of gold per month, generating nearly 500 tons annually—about half of the total demand over the past three years.

Meanwhile, inflows into gold ETFs by individual investors are accelerating, recording $21.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, the second-highest level ever. This dual demand—both from institutional and individual investors—supports the upward trajectory of gold prices.

New Portfolio and Gold Allocation Strategy—Balancing Risk Aversion and Growth

Moving away from the traditional 60% stocks and 40% bonds allocation, a new asset allocation model is being proposed. The new 60/40 portfolio consists of:

• Stocks: 45%
• Bonds: 15%
• Safe assets like gold: 15%
• Growth-oriented gold-related assets (silver, mining stocks): 10%
• Commodities: 10%
• Bitcoin: 5%

This reallocation reflects a practical response to declining confidence in traditional safe assets like government bonds. Specifically, dividing gold into “stability-focused” and “growth-focused” categories allows for more nuanced adjustment of the portfolio’s risk-return profile.

Historical data shows that silver and mining stocks tend to follow gold’s upward phases like relay racers. Looking at performance in the 1970s and 2000s suggests there is significant room for a comeback over the next decade.

Geopolitical Risks and the Shift in the Dollar System—Theoretical Foundations for Long-Term Gold Investment

The ongoing reorganization of the global financial order significantly elevates gold’s strategic importance. The relative weakening of US dollar dominance, trade frictions between the US and China, and geopolitical tensions including Ukraine are raising questions about the traditional dollar-centered system.

In the new international financial system, gold is increasingly seen as a “supranational settlement asset.” As a neutral asset not belonging to any specific country or party, it carries no confiscation risk and can be held domestically by each nation to hedge against currency risks. Moreover, the average daily trading volume in 2024 exceeds $229 billion, often surpassing liquidity levels of many advanced country bonds, supporting gold’s role as an international settlement asset.

US policy shifts are also key variables. Concerns about excessive fiscal deficits, changes in tariffs, and potential dollar devaluation are fueling fears of a long-term decline in dollar purchasing power.

Short-Term Adjustments and Long-Term Outlook—Investment Roadmap Toward 2030

In the short term, price adjustments are possible. Market analysis indicates that gold prices may decline to around $2,800 or remain sideways temporarily. This is part of the stabilization process of the bull market and does not threaten the long-term upward trend.

Risks include unexpected reductions in central bank demand, sharp drops in geopolitical premiums, or US economic strength exceeding expectations. However, during periods of stagflation, gold’s average real annual compound growth rate has been 7.7%, and silver’s 28.6%, confirming historically that these assets perform exceptionally well during economic turmoil.

From an investor’s perspective, now is a good opportunity to build or expand gold holdings. Continuing existing positions, gradually increasing allocations to growth assets like silver and mining stocks, and considering Bitcoin as part of diversification are all worthwhile strategies.

Conclusion—Is Gold an Obsolete Asset or a Future Investment?

The bullish forecast of $8,900 for gold by 2030 is not merely a numerical prediction but reflects structural changes such as the reorganization of the global financial order and declining confidence in the currency system. Over the past 50 years, gold has been viewed as a peripheral asset, but it is now re-emerging onto the main stage of capital markets.

Rapid changes in the financial environment, consistent central bank purchases, expanding participation by individual investors, and the shift in the dollar system collectively form a foundation for long-term gold price growth. AI-driven market analysis also contributes to confirming these major trends, enabling more reliable forecasts through a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches.

For investors already holding gold, maintaining positions remains a prudent choice, and newcomers still find market entry attractive. Properly allocating gold within a long-term asset mix, avoiding overreaction to short-term fluctuations, and steadily executing the investment roadmap toward 2030 will be key to achieving true investment success.